The Week

The week the truce ran out and nothing replaced it: the US–Iran memorandum expired into economic warfare, Russia’s home front was confirmed by the Kremlin’s own mouth, and Washington spent the week testing its allies rather than its enemies.

The Hormuz arrangement last week’s review called permanent turned out to have a clock on it. The 60-day US–Iran memorandum expired on Monday with Ghalibaf declaring victory and Mojtaba Khamenei installing hardliners in seven security posts; within hours a vessel was hit by an unknown projectile in the strait and Trump threatened to bomb Oman — the mediator — if it “gets in the way” (Tuesday). The escalation then changed instruments. Wednesday the UAE imposed an indefinite trade embargo after an alleged Iranian missile strike Tehran called a false flag; Thursday Trump announced “the most crushing economic operation ever”, which NPR read as a pivot forced by stretched assets and munitions shortages. By the weekend the economic war had its own front: Rezaei warned neighbours that joining it makes them enemies, China declined to participate, and Iranian-affiliated hackers took a British power plant offline for four days (Sunday). The one soft signal was Saturday’s: Iran’s president saying it was “time to end the war” and an Omani–Iranian call — the same day Trump called the strait “American territory” and his approval hit 33%.

Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign, named as strategy last week, produced its proof this week — from Moscow. Monday’s hundreds of drones became Tuesday’s 620 over the capital region, gutting the Wildberries hub at Koledino, while Britain was named as the supplier of the Nyan jet drone and told it “will pay”. Wednesday the Kremlin fired VEB’s Klepach — last week’s 1917/1991 prophet — while the data he was fired for kept arriving: $15bn pulled from banks, fewer than a third of gas stations with fuel, 81% of Russians cutting food. By Sunday Putin himself acknowledged “economic damage” from the strikes for the first time, even as he made United Russia the war party for September’s Duma elections, called peace proposals “exotic” and threatened Ukraine’s “most vulnerable” sectors. Russia’s answer came against civilians: 25 ballistic missiles and 168 drones on Kyiv killing 12 on Thursday, a double-tap on a Kryvyi Rih shopping mall killing 16 and a separate Kyiv infrastructure strike killing 17 on Saturday, then railways and a passenger train. Ukraine’s weekly tally — 8,477 drones and 26 Flamingos, Crimea’s grid under rationing — was a record; Russia’s answer was a French interceptor pledge and Zelensky offering to buy Patriots outright.

The quieter story was the US treating its alliances as something to be audited. Trump cut the US–Korea drills on Monday on the strength of a Kim photo and Seoul’s absence from the Iran war; Ulchi Freedom Shield ended six days early on Wednesday; Thursday Al Jazeera published a Pentagon questionnaire asking all 31 NATO allies to demonstrate “political loyalty”; and on Saturday the Canada talks — which previous coverage had reported as a deal — collapsed into 50% tariffs under a never-used Section 338, with Carney’s dollar-for-dollar reply set for 8 September and Vance caught on tape mocking him. Meanwhile Russia kept probing the other side of the alliance: a Banderol cruise missile in a Moldovan field, the WSJ reporting Russia could attack NATO as early as September, and Poland’s defence ministry saying it is preparing for war (Tuesday); Thursday’s Kyiv barrage put a drone in Romania too.

Two items outside the war deserve a line each. DRC’s Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak became the deadliest in the country’s history at 2,325 dead on Monday and was not mentioned again. And the Merck–Moderna personalised mRNA melanoma vaccine met its Phase 3 endpoints (Thursday) — the week’s only unambiguous good news. Markets finally moved, a little: the VIX stayed in a 14.95–15.85 band but gold climbed from 4,466 on Monday to 4,681 on Sunday, and Bitcoin ran from $63,467 to $76,052 on the week, with a +8.5% day on Thursday the edition did not explain. Last week’s “furniture” verdict held for equities and softened for havens. One gap in the record: the paper has no Friday edition this week, so Friday’s events are seen only through Saturday’s reporting.

Threads

Questions

From last week:

• “Bloomberg reports Washington will roll out a comprehensive ‘economic isolation’ plan for Iran next week — is it actually announced, or does the indefinite blockade continue with no new instrument?” — Resolved: announced. On Wednesday night Trump declared “the most crushing economic operation ever” against Iran, threatening any country that trades with Tehran (Thursday). Its first week produced a UAE embargo already in train and a Chinese refusal — the instrument exists; its bite does not yet.
• “Does ISW’s forecast concentrated campaign against Kyiv’s power grid begin — and if a major ballistic barrage comes, does the intercept rate materially beat zero of 28?” — Resolved on the first half, Open on the second. The barrage came: 25 ballistic missiles and 168 drones on Thursday, two districts without power, 12 dead, followed by Saturday’s infrastructure strike that cut Kyiv’s hot water and killed 17. The coverage reports 186 of 193 aerial assets downed and that officials “could not intercept all incoming missiles” — but never splits ballistic intercepts out, so the 0-of-28 benchmark cannot be scored. Next week should demand the number.
• “Ukraine conditionally spared CPC infrastructure hoping for a Patriot production licence in return — does any movement on that licence appear, or does the Vance arrangement stand as restraint for nothing?” — Open. No licence coverage all week. What appeared instead was the workaround: Zelensky offering Kellogg a direct Patriot purchase and France pledging interceptors (Sunday). Whether CPC stayed off the target list also went unreported.

Posed this week:

• Canada’s retaliatory tariffs are dated 8 September — do they take effect on schedule, or is a deal (or a Section 338 rollback) reported before then?
• Iran’s president said it is “time to end the war” and Omani–Iranian contact resumed — are formal US–Iran talks actually announced next week, or does economic warfare continue with no negotiating track?
• Does the coverage of the next major Russian barrage report a ballistic-missile intercept figure — the number this and last week’s reviews have failed to obtain?