Josse-posten

Israel wakes to a hung Knesset and a general who refused an order without paperwork; Putin gives two Nordic leaders 90 minutes of history; Anthropic’s S-1 shows what frontier AI costs.

Israel election: hung result, record Arab vote — and an IDF chief who demanded written orders

Yousef Jabareen of the Joint List reacts to exit polls at party headquarters in Nazareth. Photo: Jamal Awad/Reuters

Israelis turned out in the highest numbers in over two decades for the first election since October 7. With roughly 60% of polling stations reporting, Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc holds about 56 seats, short of the 61 needed; exit polls had Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc ahead but also short of a majority. Eisenkot calls it a mandate for change. True results are days away.

The structural shift is the Arab vote. Palestinian citizens of Israel turned out at roughly 80%, a historic high, pushing Arab parties toward a record of up to 18 seats. Eisenkot may only be able to govern with their support — and Netanyahu, who used Arab turnout as a scare tactic during the campaign, now calls any coalition with Arab parties “shameful and a disgrace.”

The campaign’s final days had their own drama. The Times of Israel reports that IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir refused to execute a military action against Iran ordered by Netanyahu just before the vote, demanding signed legal authorisation. Military sources described it as “an effort by the political leadership to utilize the Iranian issue for political benefit.” Netanyahu denies any conflict; one opposition leader compared his conduct to treason. Public resistance by a serving IDF chief to a direct prime ministerial order has no modern precedent.

Putin lectures Støre and Stubb for 90 minutes; Washington eyes relief for his “slush fund”

Norway’s PM Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb. Photo: BBC

The first direct European leader contact with the Kremlin since July 2025 — a joint call from Helsinki by Stubb and Støre, prepared with Kyiv and US envoy Witkoff — produced no movement. Putin restated NATO rollback to pre-1997 borders and recognition of occupied territory as preconditions, and, per the FT, spent much of the call lecturing on Russian history. The Kremlin called it “very constructive”; Denmark and Estonia questioned its usefulness. Meanwhile the NYT reports the Trump administration is weighing lifting sanctions on the Russian Direct Investment Fund, which Biden’s Treasury called Putin’s “slush fund,” as three tankers of Russian diesel head for US ports. (More in Investigations)

Anthropic’s S-1: $16.3B half-year revenue, $389B in compute commitments

Anthropic’s prospectus, filed for a Nasdaq listing under “ANT”, shows $16.3B in H1 2026 revenue against an $80.7B net loss, mostly non-cash charges from funding notes. Compute commitments run to up to $120.5B to SpaceX by 2029 (~$3.1B a month for Nvidia GPU access), $114.5B to Google, $110B to Amazon and $44.9B to Microsoft. A “Founder LLC” gives the seven co-founders 50.1% of shareholder votes after the IPO. Risk factors include AI systems developing “forms of sentience” and catastrophes beyond what “the insurance industry in the aggregate” could underwrite. In the same week, an Anthropic study found professional analysts chose the AI’s preferred option 86% of the time — even when it was not demonstrably optimal. (See also AI & Automation)

Iran: a third carrier and evacuations — while the Gulf drafts a way out

The US is evacuating troops, diplomats and families from the Middle East, has deployed a third carrier strike group and is preparing strike options; Pakistani, Saudi and Turkish mediation has stalled. Trump reportedly promised no action before the November 3 US elections. In parallel, Gulf states are brokering a multipart package: Hormuz reopened within four days of sanctions being lifted, substantial Houthi withdrawals inside Yemen, and an easing of the US sanctions posture.

Flávio Bolsonaro flees Brazil despite a court order to surrender his passport

Days after his defeat, Flávio Bolsonaro and his family left via Argentina and Ecuador — apparently in breach of a court order to hand over his passports by noon Tuesday. The State Department confirmed it will issue US visas; Trump said “It would be OK with me.” A Brazilian court has opened an investigation into possible illegal foreign funding of his campaign. Lula: “A person who sneaks out of their country must have something to hide.”

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  • Nasdaq futures +0.43% — extends Tuesday’s AI-driven rally, while Chinese markets keep losing ground (see Investigations)

World

Egypt shuts Mada Masr as Sisi says he won’t seek a fourth term

An Egyptian court has ordered the closure of Mada Masr, one of the country’s last independent news outlets, and fined its editor Lina Attalah. Amnesty called it “a crushing blow to press freedom.” The same week, President el-Sisi said he will not run for a fourth term — which analysts read not as a step toward civilian rule, but as the military arranging a handover within its own structure.

Canada edges toward EU “associate membership”

Senior Canadian officials say the relationship with the EU will be “closer to membership than ever,” with an upcoming summit expected to formalise an arrangement well beyond CETA. Canada also signed a trade deal with the UAE on Tuesday — both part of Mark Carney’s strategy to reduce dependence on the United States.

Britain: Burnham’s first budget, and free movement on the table

Chancellor John Healey presents the Burnham government’s first budget today. The headline pre-announcement: abolishing standing charges on gas bills for 23 million households, an “unfair and outdated” fee. The package favours struggling households, first-time buyers and small businesses; banks and online marketplaces may pay more. Separately, officials have begun internal talks with the EU on long-term options that include a possible return to free movement — well beyond the youth mobility scheme acknowledged publicly — ahead of November’s summit.

Slovenia loses its last glacier — and satellites show the AMOC weakening

The final ice patch on Triglav, Slovenia’s highest peak and a national symbol, melted during this year’s scorching summer; the glacier had already lost 93% of its area. New satellite data, meanwhile, gives some of the strongest observational evidence yet that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is losing strength — a more direct signal than the temperature proxies earlier assessments relied on.

Ebola in DRC passes 10,000 cases — the fastest spread on record

The outbreak has crossed 10,000 confirmed cases at a pace not seen before, raising questions about vaccine effectiveness, contact-tracing capacity and whether its reach has outrun containment.

NPR

Also today

Americas
El Salvador rushes 1,000 troops to Haiti after a gang ambush on security forces — Reuters · Reddit
US strike on an alleged drug vessel in the eastern Pacific kills five; more than 70 such strikes in recent months — Guardian
Trump “terminates” Biden-era methane leak rules, shows off a Venezuelan oil tanker and floats Venezuela as the 51st state — Guardian: methane · Guardian: tanker · NPR
Middle East
Jordan–Syria border reopens; joint security committee probes Jordan’s retaliatory airstrikes — Al Jazeera
Asia-Pacific & Commonwealth
Australia’s lower house passes a bill banning AI chatbots from seeking “emotional intimacy” with users — Guardian
King Charles confirms he will discuss the legacy of slavery at the Commonwealth summit in the Caribbean — Guardian

Ukraine

Drones hit Russia’s Azot chemical plant; Kharkiv struck in return

The moment the AM-70 ammonia unit at the Azot plant in Novomoskovsk is hit. Photo: Ukrainska Pravda

Ukrainian drones struck the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk overnight, hitting the AM-70 ammonia unit; Azot supplies explosives components to Russia’s military. Other strikes caused fires near the NLMK steel plant in Lipetsk and destroyed 30+ logistics vehicles and an ammunition depot in Luhansk. Satellite imagery confirms damage from last week’s strike on the 75th Arsenal in Serpukhov, Russia’s key air defence repair facility. Russia kept up drone strikes on Kharkiv, hitting residential buildings, warehouses and a metro entrance and injuring five, including a child.

12 Patriots a month against a need of 35

Zelenskyy says Ukraine receives 12 Patriot interceptors a month against a need of 35, after more than 100 ballistic missiles were fired at Kyiv in two weeks; trilateral talks on supplies are expected in November. Italy is delaying Aster 30 transfers for domestic political reasons. The EU imposed its largest-ever sanctions round — 1,569 Russian companies and executives, more than half tied to the ballistic missile chain — and interception rates against jet-powered Geran-4 drones are improving.

CBS News reports photos showing Starlink connectivity was throttled during a Russian strike that killed five people in a park. Separately, a UN body has concluded that Russia’s systematic attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid constitute a war crime.

Operation Veles: the underground advance Zelenskyy ranks among the war’s top three gains

A Ukrainian soldier launches a drone above occupied Oleshky, 4 October. Photo: Euronews

With the front broadly static on 27 October, Zelenskyy said Ukraine holds its “strongest frontline position in a long time.” He ranked Operation Veles — the underground pipeline advance near Kupiansk, with 100+ Russian troops killed and 30+ captured — among Ukraine’s three most significant gains of the war, and said the methods will be expanded. Near Velyka Novosilka, Ukrainian counterattacks are pressing a key logistics hub; Moscow has sent elite Rubikon drone operators to stabilise the sector.

Oleshky ceasefire extended across Kherson — but what happens to the evacuees?

The truce has been extended to the wider Kherson frontline, with no breaches reported; it runs through 1 November. The open question is civilians: Putin called Oleshky a “Russian settlement” on the Nordic call, the FT reported Russia intends to route evacuees through Crimea or Russia before return, and nothing governs residents holding Russian passports under coercion.

Also today

  • Romanian and allied services confirm a Russian sabotage network was behind September’s arson at an arms site in Brașov — Kyiv Independent · Reddit

Investigations

The Nordic call with Putin, and what Washington is offering Moscow

Stubb and Støre’s 90-minute call was coordinated with Kyiv and Witkoff after a Zelensky–Nordic–Witkoff meeting in Oslo the week before. Both acknowledged “big differences in views” but agreed to keep talking; Peskov said a European voice at the table would be “good,” a notable shift in tone. First trilateral US–Ukraine–Russia talks since January are tentatively set for Abu Dhabi in early November. Germany’s ambassador was blunter: Russia “has at no time in the past four and a half years negotiated in a serious way.”

The American track looks different. RDIF chief Kirill Dmitriev has offered to act as payment conduit for Russian diesel shipments to the US while seeking sanctions relief for his fund; Witkoff told Putin’s team the trade “is leading to a sense of what the possibilities are between our two nations.” The FT reports Washington has discussed deals for US oil majors in occupied Ukraine. A Foreign Affairs analysis argues Putin’s strategy is working: Trump is becoming the unwitting executor of Kremlin objectives, handing over diesel, sanctions relief and investment while Ukraine gets nothing. TVP World notes Putin, increasingly sceptical Trump can deliver, has opened channels to Europe.

Trump, Russia and China line up behind Orbán for UN Secretary-General

US officials have approached Viktor Orbán directly about the post, and Washington believes Moscow and Beijing would back him. A State Department official called him the “dream candidate for MAGA conservatives.” With three permanent Security Council members aligned, the candidacy could be decisive. Critics warn it would turn the office into an advocate for authoritarian leaders.

ICIJ: How China’s megabank turned Zambia into a cautionary tale

A Bank of China billboard at Kenneth Kaunda International Airport, Lusaka, 2018. Photo: Getty Images via ICIJ

The latest instalment of ICIJ’s China Capital investigation follows over $6.6 billion in ICBC loans to Zambia, where the bank combined the roles of lender and contractor — concentrating risk on Zambia and profit on Chinese firms. When state utility ZESCO struggled with a $20 million payment in 2018, ICBC pressured its London branch to move funds from a reserve account without proper documentation. Confidentiality clauses hid Zambia’s true debt burden from other creditors and complicated restructuring after its 2020 default, the first in Africa during COVID. Approval of China among Zambians fell from 72% to 42% between 2014 and 2022.

The machine staff: AI out-plans human officers 2:1 — and that’s the problem

Photo: Debora Henley/DVIDS

At Nellis AFB, an AI built military courses of action in under a minute at 97% tactical viability; human planners took 19 minutes and hit 48%. A War on the Rocks analysis argues that could compress headquarters staffs, but warns of two risks: polished outputs mask flawed assumptions, leaving the data pipeline open to adversary corruption; and junior officers who learn planning through AI may never build the expertise to catch its errors in combat. The authors propose independent cells tasked with contesting machine-generated assessments.

AfD’s blueprint for dismantling the EU from inside

The AfD has set out a concrete programme to turn the EU into a “free federation of sovereign nations” — not by leaving, but by staying in, stripping Brussels of regulatory and legislative power and blocking supranational decisions from within. It is more operationally detailed than earlier Eurosceptic platforms.

Also today

  • European strategists have stopped counting on a Democratic Congress to rescue US support for Ukraine; planning now assumes sustained disengagement — Politico · Reddit
  • RUSI: the Netherlands should resist US pressure under the MATCH Act to further restrict ASML exports to China — RUSI · Reddit
  • Chinese markets lose trillions as the AI race with the US takes its toll, while global markets rise on AI bets — Guardian · Al Jazeera · Reddit
  • Russia–Africa summit in Moscow: critics say Russia is selling dependence disguised as partnership — Al Jazeera

Tech

CVE-2026-97631: a 16-year-old UEFI overflow threatens nearly every server

A buffer overflow in TianoCore EDK2’s PXE boot ICMP handler lets an attacker on the local network during boot run code in ring 0 before Secure Boot or the TPM come into play. EDK2 underpins essentially every UEFI vendor (AMI, Insyde, Phoenix) and Microsoft’s Project Mu. The bug dates to 2010; it was found by Anthropic’s Alex Matrosov and Google’s Dan Holmes, and coordinated disclosure broke early when AMI published the fix as a GitHub PR. Exploitation requires presence on the network during a PXE boot.

Tailscale SSH privilege escalation patched

Users authorised for Tailscale SSH could act beyond their configured local user permissions, up to elevated privileges. A patched client shipped 27 October. Tailscale recommends reviewing SSH access policies and setting TS_SSH_DISABLE_FORWARDING=1 on sensitive systems; a full advisory is pending.

Fuzzers vs. AI: Project Zero finds a tie on V8 — and only 25% overlap

Actionable V8 vulnerabilities over six months: Fuzzilli 37, BigSleep 45. Chart: Google Project Zero

Over April–September, Google’s LLM-based BigSleep found 45 V8 vulnerabilities and the Fuzzilli fuzzer 37. Only about a quarter overlapped. LLMs are better at bugs that need logical reasoning or specific magic values; fuzzers catch non-local bugs that are hard to see in code. Given historical context, BigSleep rediscovered 62% of past Fuzzilli bugs. The conclusion: use both.

The other side of AI-found bugs: Gentoo’s Michał Górny writes that LLM-generated CVE reports are flooding maintainers, forcing meaningless version bumps and bundling to satisfy scanners — “every chatbot for itself.”

Fil-C memory-safe binaries come to Nix via Filnix

DJB’s notes on Fil-C — a memory-safe C/C++ compiler at 1–4× the cost of clang on cryptographic code — cover practical deployment. Filian rebuilds Debian packages with Fil-C; Mikael Brockman’s Filnix does the same for Nix, with binaries cached on Cachix, so an unprivileged user can pull Fil-C builds without root or a system rebuild. Of 61 packages DJB tested, 60 compiled cleanly.

Classification of Finite Simple Groups fully formalised in Lean — 43 million lines

The first machine-verified proof of CFSG is substantially complete: 43.1 million lines of Lean 4, 2.05 million declarations, citing 715 papers and books, by 35+ contributors. The effort found an error in a published argument on the Unbalanced Group Theorem and needed a new proof using Solomon’s 1976 theory. Also in formal maths: following OpenAI’s ETH disproof, Anthropic has published a formal proof that 3SAT is solvable in subexponential time, with a one-paragraph hint from which Claude Opus 5.5 can rederive the refutation.

Syl: a systems language with staged compile-time dependent types

Max Slater’s Syl, inspired by András Kovács’ two-level type theory and OxCaml, tags values as static (compile-time) and/or unerased (runtime). It is dependently typed at compile time — enough to verify vector lengths — but simply typed at runtime. It allows general recursion and type : type, accepting that “constructing an expression of type t does not prove the proposition.”

CPython’s JIT experiment ends

The copy-and-patch JIT introduced in CPython 3.13 is being removed after PEP 836 failed to satisfy the Steering Council: vague maintenance plans, possible platform lock-in, underspecified behavioural differences, security review gaps, and a compatibility review not due until August 2028. The authors withdrew, citing bandwidth.

LWN · HN

Ghostty 1.4: 6× faster text, full Kitty graphics

Plain-text throughput is up to 6× faster and scrollback memory down 70–90% through compression. Ghostty is the first non-Kitty terminal with complete Kitty graphics protocol support, including animation. Linux and FreeBSD get an EGL renderer that fixes blurry text at 125% and 150% scaling, plus a ghostty +ssh wrapper for remote terminfo and the Kitty clipboard protocol.

Also today

Security
Astral’s tar-codec, now in uv 0.13, closes tar parser differentials that let malicious packages pass index scanning — Astral · Lobsters
Scalable Vector Grief: PortSwigger bypasses 6 of 8 SVG sanitizers; DOMPurify held — PortSwigger · Lobsters
Trump administration withholds a FISA court ruling that Section 702 filtering tools are warrantless searches — Wired · HN
Hardware
Raspberry Pi Zero 3W (BCM2711) and Pi 4 Model A spotted in kernel device trees — bret.dk · HN

AI & Automation

Claude Code reverse-engineered the Xbox 360 kernel to run Series X|S controllers natively

A developer used Claude Code to reverse-engineer the Xbox 360 kernel and write xa.xex, a boot-time plugin that drives Microsoft’s USB Xbox Wireless Adapter directly from the console: firmware upload, radio setup, pairing, the ECDH handshake and the GIP controller protocol — everything xone/xpadneo does on a PC. Up to four controllers with full rumble, no extra hardware.

Claude Code: service errors ate paid limits

Two reports from 27 October: one user’s usage spiked 8×, and Anthropic support confirmed service errors count against paid limits with no compensation; another documented Opus 5.5 using 3.8× more tokens per task than the week before, with worse output. The suggested workaround is to cap thinking explicitly in the session prompt.

SenseNova Code2Video: animation by writing code, with a Claude Code skill

Films generated by Code2Video, from lidar scans to typographic animation. Source: SenseNova

SenseTime’s 27B Code2Video, fine-tuned from Qwen3, makes video by generating and running code rather than pixel diffusion — composable, debuggable, and able to call image, 3D and editing tools as pipeline steps. It ships with a code-video Claude Code skill and eight craft guides. Apache 2.0, with weights and a 512K context.

Also today

  • Papers with Code is back: Hugging Face rebuilt it and open-sourced it under Apache 2.0 — GitHub · paperswithcode.co · Reddit
  • “Token maxxing”: a community guide to running many parallel agents on Claude Max — Reddit
cd ~/repos/josse-posten && claude --resume bae15871-90b6-4f87-a49d-4d01f2f2d849