Josse-posten

Ukraine takes the war to Russia’s second city in its most complex deep strike yet, Europe hardens against Trump’s sanctions waiver, and France sees its worst unrest in years.

Ukraine strikes St. Petersburg: oil terminal, bridge, VK data center and Ozon warehouse hit in one night

Fire burning in St. Petersburg during the large Ukrainian drone attack on October 18. Photo: Kyiv Independent

Overnight Oct 17–18, Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s second city across multiple target types simultaneously. The St. Petersburg oil terminal and Ruchyi oil depot caught fire, a cable-stayed bridge on the Western High-Speed Diameter toll highway was struck, VK’s data center was hit (the social network operating at 56% capacity), an Ozon e-commerce logistics warehouse burned, and an electrical substation was knocked out. The breadth of the operation — energy, transport, logistics, and information infrastructure in a single night — makes it the most complex deep strike package of the war.

Separately, Ukrainian drones struck the Ryazan oil refinery south of Moscow, halting one of its main units, as Kyiv resumed strikes on Russian energy infrastructure following the collapse of a brief informal ceasefire on such targets.

Europe pushes back on the sanctions waiver: Italy calls it a “major mistake”, Bank of England governor walks out of IMF summit

European reactions to Trump’s Russia sanctions pause are hardening. Italy called it a “major mistake,” warning Putin cannot be stopped this way. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey walked out of the IMF annual summit in Washington in protest over Russia’s participation. Zelensky described the waiver as a “reward” for Putin and warned it would intensify the war, while urging Congress to push back.

Trump, for his part, called the waiver “very good for the US and the world,” while his envoys Kushner and Witkoff are reportedly proposing that European countries buy Russian gas as part of a peace framework — an offer European officials reject outright. A Kremlin envoy meanwhile said Russia and the US may soon announce joint data center investment projects — a further sign of economic normalization that European allies are watching with alarm. (European military preparations covered in Ukraine)

Zelensky confirmed on October 17 that Starlink restrictions remain in place and apply only in Ukraine: interceptor drones lose their connection above 161 km/h, making them unable to engage Russia’s faster jet-powered Geran variants. The operational gap is measurable — Ukraine’s intercept rate for jet drones is 54% versus ~90% for conventional piston drones, per Ukrainian Air Force figures. SpaceX has ignored Kyiv’s repeated requests for an explanation or exemption.

Reuters reports the order limiting Starlink/Starshield speeds originated inside the White House. Zelensky called it a “planned operation” to restrict Ukraine rather than a technical issue; Trump said he doesn’t know who gave the order. The disclosure frames Starlink as a strategic liability: a critical military dependency controlled by a private actor with no formal accountability to Ukraine’s defense needs.

France erupts in worst civil unrest in years as cost-of-living protests turn violent

More than 1,200 people were arrested across France after nationwide cost-of-living demonstrations — involving over half a million people — escalated into widespread violence Saturday. Buildings and cars were set ablaze, shops looted, and the historic 14th-century town hall of Limoges was “largely lost” to fire. In Paris, police fired teargas as protesters clashed in the streets. The French government is investigating why police used 4x4 vehicles funded by British taxpayers — meant for Channel asylum operations — to charge at student protesters. Authorities blamed the violence on “ultra-left” agitators joining student marchers.

The unrest is the most serious France has seen in years, echoing the Yellow Vest movement, and sits against a wider European backdrop: separate cost-of-living protests swept Belgium, Italy, and Portugal on the same day.

Two tankers ablaze in Strait of Hormuz after hitting mines

Commercial vessels and oil tankers anchored off Bandar Abbas, Iran, near the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: Getty Images

Iran says two tankers — each carrying approximately two million barrels of crude oil — caught fire after striking naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz; the IRGC says both vessels were using an unauthorized route. Al Jazeera is also tracking ship attacks off the UAE coast and in Yemeni waters, while the Saudi-led coalition intercepted four drones over Saudi Arabia including near Riyadh. The incidents mark an escalation from last week’s single supertanker fire and raise fresh fears about disruption to the world’s critical oil shipping chokepoint. (Gulf states’ Yemen reassessment covered in World)

Explosion kills at least 7 at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright, dozens injured

An explosion and large fire at CFB Wainwright — one of Canada’s busiest military training bases, in Alberta — killed at least seven people and left dozens injured Saturday. Local hospitals were described as “completely overwhelmed.” Prime Minister Carney confirmed a “serious incident” causing significant casualties; Defence Minister David McGuinty provided no cause or specific death toll, citing the ongoing nature of the emergency. Patients were transported to hospitals in Edmonton.

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  • VIX +21% as Nasdaq sheds 2% — a risk-off close to the week; gold edges up, bitcoin and the krone flat

World

Israeli settlers attack European diplomats and clergy during West Bank olive harvest

Masked Israeli settler militants attacked a group of European diplomats, a French mayor, and the Archbishop of Cambrai in the village of Taybeh in the occupied West Bank, injuring three and damaging vehicles, as Palestinians attempted to harvest olives. The Israeli military condemned the attack; the PM’s office dismissed media coverage as a “smear” campaign. The incident escalates a pattern that last week included the beating of a Washington Post journalist — US Secretary of State Rubio separately called for Israel to “crack down” on settler violence, and the US ambassador urged prosecution of the attackers.

UAE re-enters Yemen conflict as Houthi territorial gains alarm Gulf states

The United Arab Emirates has agreed to resume payments to Yemeni armed factions, effectively re-entering a war it had largely stepped back from, alarmed by recent Houthi gains. The Saudi-led coalition simultaneously launched airstrikes around the city of Taiz to break a prolonged Houthi siege. The move signals a Gulf states reassessment of their Yemen strategy as Iran-backed Houthi forces consolidate control of new territory.

DRC: Former President Kabila joins M23 rebellion, raising fears of wider war

M23 fighters stand guard in Goma, eastern DRC, where the group controls significant territory. Photo: Jospin Mwisha/AFP

Joseph Kabila, who ruled the Democratic Republic of Congo for 18 years until 2019, has joined the M23 rebel movement fighting in the country’s east. Kabila brings political legitimacy, potential external connections, and a network of loyalists to a rebellion that already controls the key city of Goma. The move throws peace negotiations into doubt and marks a new chapter in his confrontation with sitting President Tshisekedi, who has accused him of destabilizing the country.

Russia maneuvers satellite close to US intelligence satellite, raising alarm

Russia has moved one of its spacecraft into close proximity to a US intelligence satellite in orbit, according to Axios, prompting concern among American officials about possible hostile intent. The proximity could indicate intelligence gathering, signal jamming, or pre-positioning for a potential anti-satellite attack — adding a space dimension to the broader Russia-West confrontation.

Mexico arrests official who let CIA participate in unauthorized drug raid

Mexican authorities have arrested a state official accused of facilitating an unauthorized CIA role in a domestic drug enforcement operation. The arrest is a significant test of sovereignty sensitivities that have long complicated US-Mexico security cooperation — and comes against a backdrop of heightened friction after Trump-era unilateral pressure on Mexican cartels.

In Guatemala, Juan Francisco Solorzano Foppa, a former public prosecutor known for anti-corruption investigations, was shot and killed at a sports centre on Saturday. Police arrested two suspects in connection with the killing, which raises fresh alarm about the safety of those who have pursued accountability cases in the country.

At least 19 killed, including a child, in stampede at Kolkata festival

At least 19 people — including a seven-year-old girl — died in a crush during a Hindu festival event in Kolkata, India, with many more injured. The stampede occurred at a densely crowded gathering for the festival celebration.

Also today

Americas
No Kings rallies draw thousands across the US ahead of midterms, urging early voting; campaign ad spending has passed $10 billion — Al Jazeera · NPR: midterm spending
Arizona joins Nevada’s legal fight against Trump’s Colorado River water cuts — The Guardian
Hurricane Trudy strengthens to Category 2; warning in effect from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes — The Guardian
Argentina escalates economic pressure on the Falklands as Milei slumps in the polls — The Guardian
Europe
UK and EU agree to hold Brexit reset summit on November 20 — Politico EU · r/worldnews
Austrian MEP Lena Schilling speaks out on AI nude deepfakes — one in six female MEPs targeted — and urges the EU to criminalize them — The Guardian
Asia
Rubio visits Mumbai and skips New Delhi, causing diplomatic friction with India — Al Jazeera
Dozens of critically endangered orangutans rescued from Indonesian wildfires — NPR

Ukraine

Russia’s energy campaign: another strike wave; Zaporizhstal hit again

Aftermath of a Russian strike on Rivne. Photo: National Police of Ukraine

The night of Oct 17–18 brought another Russian strike wave — ~180 drones, 152 downed — hitting Rivne, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Ternopil, and Dnipro with power cuts across the country. Zaporizhstal steel plant in Zaporizhzhia was struck again with six ballistic missiles, still not recovered from an earlier attack; the German-owned Kromberg & Schubert auto cable plant in Lutsk halted operations entirely after a direct strike.

UK, France and Germany drill in Poland for a Ukraine deployment; Tusk warns of hybrid strikes on border rail before Christmas

Polish Army W-3 Sokół helicopters during the Anakonda-23 multinational exercise in Nowa Dęba, Poland. Photo: Getty Images

UK, France, and Germany have begun joint military drills in Poland in preparation for a potential Ukraine deployment. In parallel, Polish PM Tusk warned of Russian hybrid escalation against logistics and rail infrastructure on the Polish-Ukrainian border before Christmas, describing near-unanimous EU consensus that Ukraine’s fall would threaten the whole continent. (Trump’s defense of the sanctions waiver and the Russian-gas proposal covered in the leader)

Dobropillya holds; Russian pressure builds at Kostyantynivka

Russia is applying the Pokrovsk playbook to Dobropillya — drone isolation of supply routes combined with infantry infiltration — but Ukrainian forces remain in control and Russian drone operators have not yet entered the town. North of Kostyantynivka, Russian forces have infiltrated Molocharka while pressing from Novodmytrivka; Ukrainian positions hold in the city’s north and center, blocking the Russian push toward Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk. A small Ukrainian advance cleared infiltrators in Tykhonivka east of Kramatorsk, and Operation Vivaldi continues in Luhansk Oblast, with Ukrainian drone operators repositioning closer to the front to engage previously out-of-range Russian armor. ISW confirms Russia has net-lost 122 sq km since September 1 — the opposite of Gerasimov’s sweeping claims, which Ukraine’s General Staff formally refuted on October 17.

Also today

  • Romanian F-16s shot down two drones over the Black Sea, underscoring NATO entanglement at the conflict’s edges — Euronews
  • Ukraine’s FM describes a Russian-held town as a “death trap” where residents are starving; Zelensky called the situation genocide. The UN reports Ukrainian civilian casualties surged 85% in September — Reuters
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