Josse-posten

Washington turns the screws on Kyiv — weapons now hostage to refinery strikes, and an “energy ceasefire” Russia broke within the hour — while Britain’s prime minister says out loud what the Russia Report never would.

US threatens to suspend Ukraine’s arms channel unless Kyiv stops striking refineries

Black smoke over Gazprom Neft’s Moscow refinery, June 2026 — the kind of target Washington now wants off the list. Photo: Getty Images via Kyiv Independent

Going beyond the intelligence cutoff threatened over the weekend, the Trump administration is now warning it will suspend PURL — the procurement mechanism through which European allies buy American weapons for Ukraine — if Kyiv does not halt deep strikes on Russian oil refineries, the Financial Times reports via European officials who received calls from Washington. A US official told Axios that Trump acted after Zelensky ignored six prior requests; Zelensky says Ukraine will only stop bombing refineries once Russia stops attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

The pushback was immediate. Seven bipartisan senators said the policy would violate the 2022 law banning Russian energy imports. Trump’s own envoy Keith Kellogg broke with the administration line, saying Ukraine should keep striking. Estonia’s prime minister urged the EU to help “smash Russian oil refineries to smithereens.” The EU, for its part, announced €3bn in additional military aid for next week plus new funding for drones and missiles — a partial counterweight to American pressure, and the clearest signal yet that the administration prioritises its Russia energy arrangement over Kyiv’s battlefield autonomy.

Trump’s energy ceasefire dead on arrival — Russia strikes within the hour

Trump and Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Anchorage, August 2025. Photo: AP via Kyiv Independent

Trump posted on social media that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy infrastructure — apparently without informing either side. Within 75 minutes Russia struck the CHP-5 thermal power plant in Kharkiv and a Kyiv power plant, killing three and injuring 15 in Pisochyn. Zelensky said the announcement “was news for me” but accepted it in principle: “if Russians agree, Ukraine will agree.” The Russian State Duma also claimed no knowledge, calling the announcement a price-management stunt; according to Axios the truce would in any case cover only oil refineries.

Witkoff and Kushner are expected in Moscow within two weeks for another round of talks. The unilateral declaration alarmed European allies and underscored the improvised nature of US diplomatic engagement with the conflict — and Russia’s immediate violation leaves the initiative’s credibility in ruins.

Burnham is the first PM to confirm Russia interfered in the Brexit vote

Andy Burnham near the Reichstag in Berlin during his meeting with Chancellor Friedrich Merz, 8 October. Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Prime Minister Andy Burnham told The Rest Is Politics podcast that UK security services showed him “clear evidence” of Russian interference in the 2016 referendum — the first sitting prime minister to say so on record. The 2020 Russia Report had left the question open because no post-referendum intelligence assessment was ever commissioned; Boris Johnson’s government refused to authorise one. Burnham connected it to current operations, saying the German chancellor told him the AfD is “clearly linked to Russia — funded, I believe,” and described the UK as having been “too much on the back foot” in informing voters about foreign interference.

He deployed the admission in a push for closer EU-UK ties, arguing that failing to pursue a better post-Brexit relationship would be a “major dereliction of duty.” The Observer’s 2018 reporting on Leave.EU’s meetings with Russian officials forms part of the backdrop, though no criminal findings against Arron Banks emerged.

Second Houthi strike hits Riyadh airport in two days; six nations warn against travel to Saudi Arabia

Smoke and flames rise from King Khalid International Airport after a Houthi missile strike. Photo: Reuters via Al Jazeera

A projectile struck Terminal 4 at King Khalid International Airport on Sunday, killing a Pakistani national and injuring 11 — one day after a strike killed 12. The US, Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand issued travel warnings for Saudi Arabia. The escalating campaign is straining Trump’s Gulf strategy and risks drawing additional powers directly into the Yemen conflict. Iran’s foreign minister telephoned his Saudi counterpart after the attacks, offering to facilitate direct talks between Riyadh and the Houthis (see World).

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  • Gulf crude flows are back at pre-conflict volumes, but the freight premium stays — Kpler on Hormuz (see World)

World

Iran courts Riyadh and stonewalls Washington as the US sinks ten tankers

Iran’s foreign minister called his Saudi counterpart following the Riyadh airport attacks, offering to broker direct talks between Riyadh and the Houthis — a diplomatic opening that signals Tehran’s concern about regional escalation spiralling out of control. On the nuclear track, there is no such flexibility. Indirect talks resumed in late September after the June agreement collapsed, but Iran has rejected the core demands — cuts to enrichment levels and transfer of its existing stockpile — and is demanding upfront sanctions relief before accepting inspections. Tehran confirmed the US has accepted some terms but called the American response “inadequate,” leaving talks effectively deadlocked.

Meanwhile the US military destroyed ten tankers allegedly linked to Iran’s sanctions-evading oil export network, valued at billions of dollars — a significant escalation of maritime pressure following last week’s action near Hormuz. Recent Iranian vessel attacks appear designed to show Tehran can still destabilise markets even without controlling the strait.

Hormuz traffic is normalising through workarounds, not diplomacy

Kpler’s maritime analysis challenges the assumption that reopening the Strait of Hormuz required a US-Iran political agreement. Gulf crude exports (excluding Iran) have returned to roughly 18.5 million barrels per day — pre-conflict levels — through escorted transits, night passages, ship-to-ship logistics and alternative routing. The catch: freight costs remain elevated because the threat has been managed, not resolved. Refined products are still at about half of pre-war export levels and are the most likely pressure point to eventually force political action. Iran’s earlier offer to rapidly reopen the strait has lost most of its leverage as a result.

72 gold miners killed in airstrike near Sudan-Egypt border

An airstrike on an artisanal gold mining camp in northern Sudan, close to the Egyptian border, killed at least 72 people and injured more than 50. The Emergency Lawyers rights monitor blamed Egypt for the strike; neither Cairo nor Khartoum has commented. The attack comes amid Sudan’s ongoing civil war and deepening regional tensions.

139 dead, including children, as migrant boat capsizes off Djibouti

The capsizing near Obock killed at least 139 people, including 15 children. Photo: Al Jazeera

A vessel carrying 305 migrants capsized near the port of Obock while crossing to Yemen — one of the world’s most dangerous and counterintuitive migration routes, running from East Africa directly into an active warzone. At least 139 died, including 15 children; 84 remain missing. The UN confirmed the death toll.

Man arrested in Poland over alleged plot to assassinate PM Tusk and his defence minister

Polish police detained a suspect accused of planning to kill Donald Tusk and defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz after intelligence agencies received credible threat information. Tusk praised the security services’ swift response. The arrest is the latest in a series of violent political threats in Poland, which has also seen three school stabbings in a single week that Tusk attributed to online glorification of violence.

Delhi shuts metro stations as opposition marches on the Supreme Court over alleged voter list fraud

Authorities closed six Delhi metro stations ahead of a mass march by the opposition Congress party and the “cockroach” youth movement to the Supreme Court, demanding the removal of the chief election commissioner over alleged manipulation of voter rolls. The protests are part of a broader constitutional confrontation over election integrity that has been building since the recent state elections — and follow a weekend of mass detentions.

Pakistan suspends PTI-led Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government; party calls it a coup

Pakistan declared a state of emergency and suspended the provincial government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — the stronghold of imprisoned former PM Imran Khan’s PTI — a week after PTI supporters began a march on Islamabad demanding his release. PTI described the move as a constitutional coup, and the escalating standoff now threatens Pakistan’s political stability.

Brazil: Lula accuses Meta of interference in tight runoff; Amazon at stake if Bolsonaro wins

President Lula formally accused Meta of interfering in Brazil’s presidential runoff campaign, and a court gave the company 48 hours to respond. Environment Minister Marina Silva warned that Flávio Bolsonaro, if elected, will continue his father’s “perverse project” to destroy the Amazon. The result will have major consequences for global climate commitments.

Also today

Middle East & Africa
Netanyahu demands a probe into the 24 anonymous military sources behind NAZA, the award-winning documentary on AI target selection in Gaza — Al Jazeera
BBC Africa Eye analysed 1,500 videos from Raila Odinga’s state funeral and found those shot by Kenyan police were bystanders far from any scuffles — BBC
Ethiopian government forces enter Adigrat in northern Tigray, close to the Eritrean border, after rebel forces withdrew — Al Jazeera
Asia
North Korea fires multiple ballistic missiles toward the sea; one travels more than 900 km — Al Jazeera
China sanctions ministers from Paraguay and Belize over their Taiwan ties, citing “separatist activities” — Al Jazeera
Europe
European Parliament adopts a non-binding resolution calling for the Muslim Brotherhood to be added to the EU terrorist list — Jerusalem Post · r/worldnews
Pope Leo XIV to undergo lung surgery this week after an early-stage “localised nodule” was found — BBC · NPR
Americas & climate
Hurricane Isaias kills at least four and leaves nearly 400,000 without power in Florida and Alabama; El Niño breaks Pacific sea-surface temperature records as Tropical Storm Rachel threatens California — The Guardian · Al Jazeera · France24: El Niño · NPR: Rachel

Ukraine

“It felt like a trap”: the diesel deal’s strategic cost comes into focus

The Kyiv Independent reconstructs how Ukraine learned of the deal: on October 9, Witkoff and Kushner told Ukraine’s delegation — which had come to discuss an energy ceasefire — that Trump was lifting sanctions on Russian diesel exports. The Treasury licence runs to April 7, 2027, a date Ukrainian officials pointedly note is Putin’s birthday. There is no reciprocal obligation on Moscow to stop bombing Ukrainian energy infrastructure. “Everyone was shocked,” one senior official said; Zelensky called it “a weak decision by our strong partners” and said Ukraine was “simply being used as a smokescreen.”

Congressional reaction has broken unusually across party lines. Sen. Shaheen: “Congress banned Russian energy imports. The President cannot simply ignore that law.” Republicans Murkowski, Fitzpatrick and Bacon also condemned it, with Fitzpatrick promising bipartisan legislation to block Russian oil purchases. The core argument from all sides: at current Russian budget projections, the diesel revenue directly finances the war, while experts say the volumes and shipping timelines make any meaningful US price impact implausible. Canada’s PM Carney said the deal hurts Ukraine’s peace cause; the UK defence secretary said London does not support it.

Zelensky offers elections in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire; Europeans close ranks

Zelensky offered to hold Ukrainian elections — long demanded by Trump as a legitimacy condition — if Russia agrees to a 60-day ceasefire, directly addressing the stated US requirement while shifting pressure onto Moscow. European leaders publicly backed Zelensky after Trump called for new Ukrainian leadership, with Carney drawing wide admiration for his sustained pushback on what France’s envoy called an “extremely radical” US posture.

Yandex data center campaign collapses Russian bot networks

Ukraine hit a third Yandex data center in four days — Vladimir, on October 11 — forcing the company to suspend operations, and the effect on Russian disinformation infrastructure has been immediately measurable: bot traffic nearly eliminated overnight, with especially sharp drops in accounts amplifying German far-right AfD content. Polish cybersecurity outlet Niebezpiecznik, recognised by Poland’s Ministry of Digital Affairs, independently verified the collapse. The campaign opens a new front in the infrastructure war — Russia’s dominant internet platform rather than purely military or industrial assets. Meanwhile the Samara oil pipeline hub struck repeatedly last week, a facility handling a quarter of Russia’s oil transfers with 71 tanks and over 10 million barrels of capacity, was still burning more than 24 hours after the latest hit.

Overnight drone wave guts Kharkiv apartment block; Russia’s September losses top 50,000

A Shahed destroyed floors 6–8 of a Kharkiv residential building overnight. Photo: Ukrainska Pravda

Russia launched 121 drones and a Kh-59 missile overnight; Ukraine intercepted 89. A Shahed destroyed three floors of a Kharkiv residential building, injuring five, a day after a strike on a Kharkiv Oblast grocery store killed three and injured 25. NATO put Russia’s September casualties at over 50,000 — roughly 28,000 killed — against about 5,000 Ukrainian losses over the same period. Russia and its allies also began joint exercises in Belarus with 1,500 troops and 300 pieces of equipment.

Ukraine strikes Khrustalnyi logistics hub; Moscow-range ballistic missile in final development

NASA FIRMS satellite data shows fires near the former motor transport depot in Khrustalnyi in the early hours of 12 October. Image: Militarnyi

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian troop deployment and logistics facility at Khrustalnyi in occupied Luhansk, triggering three separate fires detected by NASA satellite between 01:10 and 02:07 — a site used by Russia’s 2nd Army Corps for operations toward Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. Separately, Fire Point CEO Iryna Terekh announced that Ukraine’s first domestically built ballistic missile with sufficient range to reach Moscow is in final development — the most significant Ukrainian defence industry capability announcement to date.

Investigations

Abramovich hid billions through backdated documents — with Deloitte’s help

A BBC Panorama and Bureau of Investigative Journalism investigation found that Roman Abramovich’s advisors falsified and backdated financial documents to make his superyachts and mansions disappear from accounts, evading taxes and sanctions scrutiny. The investigation directly implicates Deloitte in facilitating the concealment — raising serious questions about professional accountability at the heart of Western financial services.

Flydubai co-pilot planned 9/11-style suicide attack on Tel Aviv airport

UAE authorities disclosed that a Flydubai co-pilot had been plotting to crash an aircraft into Ben Gurion airport. The case reveals an ongoing insider-threat vector in commercial aviation with direct access to aircraft, and is significant both for the persistence of this attack planning methodology and for the UAE’s willingness to publicise the interdiction.

From engaged to destructive: the US sanctions the Court and curses the laureate

Navi Pillay, 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. Photo: Il Sole 24 Ore

A legal analysis in Opinio Juris frames Thursday’s designation of the ICC itself as a sanctioned entity as the third phase of US exceptionalism toward the Court: from engaged (selective participation, self-exemption) to disruptive (targeting officials obstructing specific cases) to destructive — using material leverage to disable the institution’s finances, technology access and cooperation networks entirely. The author argues this crosses a qualitative line: the US is no longer exempting itself from accountability but dismantling the system through which accountability operates, and calls on ICC-supporting states to build financial and diplomatic resilience to shield the Court.

The reaction to Navi Pillay’s Nobel Peace Prize illustrates the same break. Trump called the award “shameful,” attacked Pillay for “open hatred of America and Israel,” said he should have won instead, and warned that “Norway is a corrupt country; the US will not forget.” Israel’s government said “Goebbels applauds from hell.” Pillay is a former ICC judge and chaired the UN inquiry that concluded Israel committed genocide in Gaza.

China-US misperception: a simulation where every signal was read backwards

Michael Swaine draws on a Sino-American crisis simulation he helped organise: when the US repositioned an aircraft carrier away from a maritime dispute to signal de-escalation, Chinese participants read it as the carrier moving into an ideal combat launch position. The piece argues the current “strategic competition” framework embeds exactly this dynamic — it incentivises worst-case readings of defensive moves. Swaine proposes a four-stage exit: political communication that neither side seeks the other’s collapse, a 90-day military safety trial with verified safe-encounter protocols, reciprocal restraint agreements on capabilities and cyber, and durable institutionalisation. The argument is less about being soft on China than about recognising that a framework producing mutual misperception is strategically self-defeating.

Tech

Two takes on a smarter borrow checker: Valen’s path-aware references and Zeta’s disjointness proofs

Both proposals attack the same pain point — Rust’s shared-XOR-mutable rule rejects programs that are obviously fine — from different directions. Valen is a new language in which every reference carries a path describing where in the ownership tree it points, and multiple &muts are legal as long as their paths don’t overlap. mut(path) annotations in function signatures let the compiler do selective invalidation: vec.push() invalidates references into the vector’s elements, but not references to the vector itself. The safety guarantee is narrowed to “no use-after-free” rather than full mutual exclusion — more permissive in practice without sacrificing soundness, and it handles holding a reference to an entity while mutating the world around it, the pattern Rust forces into ECS architectures or unsafe.

Zeta is a proposed drop-in evolution of Rust’s own checker that adds spatial reasoning: it proves two pointers don’t alias via constant index analysis, loop range arithmetic and runtime inequality guards, so &mut list[0] and &mut list[1] become simultaneously legal when indices are provably distinct. It adds an &alias reference kind for self-referential structures without Rc<RefCell<>> overhead, field-level access declarations in function signatures, and provenance-based lifetime inference to replace explicit lifetime parameters. The linked-list example goes from 91 lines of Rc<RefCell<>> boilerplate to 56 lines with zero runtime overhead.

How Futhark solved alias propagation for GPU arrays

Futhark’s compiler team writes up how they resolved alias analysis for in-place array updates — the core problem being that aliased arrays can’t be updated in place without copying, but conservative over-approximation of aliasing kills GPU performance. A focused compiler-theory writeup from a language with a clear, well-scoped problem domain.

Type-safe HTML templating at compile time in Zig

Using Zig’s comptime type system to enforce HTML correctness at compile time: invalid element nesting and attribute misuse become type errors rather than runtime bugs. An interesting application of Zig’s metaprogramming to a domain most languages handle with runtime validation or external linters.

React Compiler makes Context subscriptions fine-grained

The React Compiler’s automatic memoisation transforms Context from a coarse re-render trigger into a fine-grained reactive primitive — components only re-render when the specific slice of context they consume changes. The post shows concrete patterns for restructuring context so the compiler can optimise subscriptions, potentially eliminating the need for external state managers in many cases.

Inside the MF10: how 1980s switched-capacitor chips emulated resistors with clocks

Annotated die photograph of the National Semiconductor MF10 with labelled functional regions. Photo: Ken Shirriff

Ken Shirriff’s die-level archaeology of the National Semiconductor MF10, an 8th-order filter chip from the early 1980s. The central trick: switched capacitors charge and discharge at a clock frequency, and the time-averaged current flow mathematically emulates a resistor — so the filter’s cutoff frequency is set by a clock input rather than physical resistors. High-resolution die photos with annotated functional regions.

Passkeys are a vendor lock-in trap

A critical analysis of the passkey trust model: passkeys bind to platform authenticators (Apple, Google, Microsoft), so recovery either weakens the security model or requires trusting platform sync — defeating the privacy case. The author argues the current spec is designed to entrench platform vendors, not empower users, and that the framing as a security upgrade obscures the lock-in. The HN thread has substantive pushback and nuance worth reading.

Browser fingerprinting has replaced cookies as the default tracking primitive

Canvas rendering differences, WebGL hardware signatures, audio context behaviour, font enumeration, and screen and timing attributes combine into a fingerprint that needs no storage permissions, survives clearing cookies, and persists across browser reinstalls. The article maps the full stack of fingerprinting vectors — how each works, what it reveals, and why they’re so hard to spoof without breaking browser functionality.

D-Bus hell: the hidden tax on Linux desktop development

A developer’s account of fighting D-Bus — convoluted protocol design, poor tooling, error messages that obscure root causes, and documentation that assumes you already know how it works. Relevant for anyone building Hyprland extensions, notification daemons, or any application that needs to integrate with Linux desktop services.

Also today

Releases
LineageOS 24.0 released on an Android 15 base, with security patch level improvements across branches 18.1–24.0 and new device support — LineageOS · Lobsters
Homelab
3-2-1 backup with restic and Backblaze B2: encrypted, deduplicated snapshots, an offsite copy, systemd timers, pruning policies and restore testing — chuck.is · Lobsters
Finnish authorities halt Google’s data center construction after the company cleared forest without a required environmental impact assessment — The Guardian · HN
Systems & theory
Consistency is a system-wide property, not a local one: an internally consistent service can still participate in a globally inconsistent outcome — n-the-loop.com · Lobsters
C’s strtod has no portable way to distinguish a parsed "0" from a failed conversion — sebsite.pw · Lobsters
Terry Tao on when diagrams are evidence and when they merely illustrate an already-proven claim — both necessary, but collapsing the distinction is where errors enter — Terence Tao · HN

AI & Automation

Opus 5.5 decompiles and ports classic games — but compilable output isn’t correct output

Stardust Speedway in Little Planet, the Sonic CD decompilation and native PC port. Image: carlosrmz009/littleplanet

Following yesterday’s FPS decompilation story, a developer used Opus 5.5 — with no reverse-engineering tools — to analyse game ROMs, reconstruct hardware emulation layers, and produce native Windows, Mac and Linux ports. The verifiable output is Little Planet: a full Sonic CD decompilation that disassembles to byte-identical reassembly, statically recompiles to C, and rebuilds the Mega-CD hardware (dual 68000s, VDP, YM2612, CD drive) from scratch. The Reddit post claims StarFox and StarFox 2 received the same treatment, and a separate user ported Crash Team Racing to the New 3DS in stereoscopic 3D from an existing PC decomp base.

A new arXiv paper supplies the caveat. LLM decompilers produce code that compiles and runs but silently alters behaviour — wrong variable types, dropped bounds checks, semantically different logic behind syntactically valid code. The gap between “recompilable output” and “semantically correct decompilation” is larger than previously measured. Byte-exactness at the binary level, as in the Sonic CD and FPS cases, is a stronger bar than the paper’s models cleared — but it is the bar to insist on.

World Action Models consolidate as the dominant robotics architecture

A cluster of 2026 papers has crystallised WAMs as the leading approach for robot control, displacing Vision-Language-Action architectures. The robustness study puts LingBot-VA at 74.2% and Cosmos-Policy at 82.2% success on benchmark suites, with the advantage attributed to spatiotemporal priors from web-scale video pretraining rather than specialised robot datasets. DreamWAM, StageWAM and PatchWAM each push the architecture further, and Nvidia now maintains a WAM glossary entry. A community deep-dive frames this as “robotics’ GPT-2 moment” — the point where the paradigm is clear even if frontier performance is still ahead.

Rich Hickey: LLMs are automation, not tools

A precise definitional argument from the creator of Clojure: tools give sensory feedback and build skill through use; automation takes requests and acts autonomously, forfeiting skill development in the process. Calling LLMs “tools” is a rhetorical move that helps rationalise delegating cognitive work you should be doing yourself — reading, formulating arguments, noticing things. No novel technical claims, but the framing is unusually clean and the stakes are clearly drawn.

Two MCP shortcuts: Integrum wraps any Python library, Pensieve gives agents on-device memory

Integrum (MIT, on PyPI) uses Python’s inspect module to introspect functions and classes in any module and wrap them as FastMCP tools — integrum expose sklearn.linear_model is all it takes to make scikit-learn callable from an LLM. It handles multi-turn state by assigning memorable two-word IDs (“playful_llama”) to objects instead of UUIDs, and regex --include/--exclude filters surface only the relevant API surface. A useful escape hatch for giving an agent existing Python tooling without hand-writing wrappers.

Pensieve is a macOS MCP server that indexes repos, uncommitted changes, worktrees and agent conversation history using on-device embeddings — no network, fully private. Instead of multiple grep calls, an agent issues one semantic query and gets back relevant passages: 2.0 tool calls per lookup versus 3.4 with grep, 18% lower cost per lookup. The standout feature is indexing past agent sessions, giving agents episodic memory over prior work without prompt stuffing. It also does git blame and bus-factor analysis to surface high-risk code.

Pipedream Workflows shuts down March 31, 2027

Pipedream, after its Workday acquisition, is retiring its core Workflows product. No new signups are accepted; existing workflows run until March 31, 2027, with all data deleted by April 30. Pipedream Connect, the embedded integration product, is unaffected. A JSON export tool exists, but the recommendation is to rebuild rather than import. n8n is the most cited migration target for its visual run history, error handling and code-step escape hatches; Trigger.dev and Inngest for durable background tasks; Activepieces and Windmill for self-hosted open source.

Also today

  • Jebadiah 27B v2.1 is a decision model, not a chat model: given a typed question and a fixed option set, it reads candidate-label logits directly and returns calibrated probabilities in a single forward pass — Decision Index 57.03, 106 ms median inference on an RTX PRO 6000 — HuggingFace · r/MachineLearning
  • A methodical measurement puts the $20 Claude subscription at roughly $1,300 in API-equivalent usage per month, a 65× multiplier; the $200 tier looks proportionally similar but is less precisely measured — r/ClaudeAI
  • Does anyone still use Fable 5.1? A thread finds Opus 5.5 “smart, thorough, works hard, and so much cheaper” that weekly Fable quota goes unused; most commenters are waiting to see whether Fable 5.5 sharpens the distinction — r/ClaudeAI
cd ~/repos/josse-posten && claude --resume 0c8ecb88-fc73-4707-895d-e59aacb8ae06