Josse-posten

The US–Iran war reaches day six with both main oil corridors under threat; Zelensky purges his government as protests spread to eighteen cities; markets go risk-off across the board.

US–Iran War, Day 6: Bridges Bombed, Marines Board a Tanker, Both Oil Corridors Threatened

A ship sailing near the Strait of Hormuz off Khor Fakkan, UAE, July 12. Photo: AFPTV

US strikes entered a new phase on the sixth night, hitting five bridges in southern Iran — including the Bandar Abbas–Shiraz route — plus targets near Qeshm Island and, reportedly, a train station and hospital. US Marines boarded the merchant tanker M/T Wen Yao in the Gulf of Oman to enforce a blockade of Iran’s ports, and a separate unladen tanker bound for the Kharg Island terminal was struck with missiles. Iran retaliated on US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain; debris from intercepted missiles sparked fires along Kuwait’s border with Iraq.

Tehran’s negotiators framed the conflict in existential terms and said they had “no reason” to abide by any deal that did not benefit Iran, insisting “Iranian arrangements” in Hormuz were a national-security matter. The IEA’s Fatih Birol warned the crisis “threatens global energy security” — the strait carries roughly 20% of seaborne oil — as US diesel topped $5/gallon. Reuters reports that Iran has told Houthi leadership to stand ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait if Washington strikes its power grid: with Hormuz already closed, both of the Middle East’s main oil corridors would go dark at once. Lebanon’s foreign minister, meanwhile, announced his country would “end Hezbollah’s military presence,” and Qatar rejected Israeli reports that it had agreed to join action against Iran.

(Analysis in Investigations: Esper on the limits of air power, Iran’s fracturing establishment, and the Red Sea escalation in full.)

Zelensky Resets the Entire Government as Protests Spread

The Rada approved a sweeping cabinet overhaul on July 16, confirming Naftogaz CEO Serhiy Koretsky as prime minister — though he already faces a NABU corruption probe from his time at Ukrnafta. Former SBU acting head Yevhen Khmara was named interim defence minister without Rada confirmation. The trigger was Zelensky’s dismissal of the popular Mykhailo Fedorov, who broke his silence to accuse Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi of “focusing on splitting Ukraine instead of finding ways to defeat Russia,” and of sabotaging the military’s new contract system. The Air Force’s deputy commander and other senior officials resigned in solidarity.

Zelensky defended the sacking, saying he had to choose “one side or the other” after relations between the defence ministry and military leadership broke down. His evening address ignored the protests now spanning eighteen cities. Former aide Andriy Yermak visited Syrskyi’s frontline command post hours after the reshuffle, fuelling speculation about who drove the purge; the Kyiv Independent’s editorial board warned the move “risks turning the tide of war back in Russia’s favour.”

Trump Primetime Speech Revives China Election-Meddling Claims Ahead of Midterms

In a primetime address from the East Room, President Trump accused China and “deep state” actors of interfering in the 2020 election, contradicting prior US intelligence findings. He released heavily redacted documents but offered no evidence of a single fraudulent vote. NBC and CNN declined to broadcast the speech; Fox News and CBS aired it live. The Guardian’s analysis called the address “bluntly aimed at destabilizing the US electoral system” ahead of midterms that could deliver heavy Republican losses.

Indicator Value Change
S&P 500 (f) 7,513.50 -0.85%
Dow 30 (f) 52,482 -0.58%
Nasdaq (f) 28,721.75 -1.72%
Russell 2000 (f) 2,971 -0.66%
VIX 17.96 +7.36%
Gold 4,000.20 +0.20%
BTC $62,877.85 -2.02%
EUR/USD 1.1446 +0.01%
USD/NOK 9.6637 -0.05%
  • Futures red across the board and VIX +7.4% as the US–Iran war enters day 6 — bridge strikes, a Gulf tanker blockade, and Iran’s Red Sea closure threat are driving risk-off positioning (see World).
  • Bitcoin -2.0%, tracking the broader flight from risk assets rather than any crypto-specific news.

World

Xi Pitches China as Leader of a New Global AI Order — as Beijing Bristles on Multiple Fronts

Xi Jinping at the opening of the World AI Conference in Shanghai, July 17. Photo: Ng Han Guan/Reuters

At the World AI Conference in Shanghai, Xi Jinping said artificial intelligence “should not be a solo performance by a single country,” positioning China as leader of an alternative, multipolar AI order in direct counterpoint to US dominance. The pitch for openness sat awkwardly beside a rougher week of Chinese conduct: Beijing declared itself “strongly dissatisfied” with the UK’s nationalisation of British Steel, calling it “a severe blow” to Chinese investor confidence; state outlet China Daily posted an AI-generated video depicting the Philippines as a monkey singing about South China Sea claims, which Manila condemned as racist; and Kim Jong Un hosted China’s fourth-ranked official, Wang Huning, in Pyongyang, signalling deepening alignment.

China Is Undermining the Order It Depends On

Foreign Affairs offers a structural critique of Beijing’s position: China’s rise was built almost entirely on access to the US-led liberal order — aid, technology, expertise, and markets since Deng’s reform and opening. Unlike the Soviet Union, it never built an alternative order capable of replacing it. Xi’s strategy of challenging the rules from within, banking on the US weakening internally, carries a fundamental blind spot — the more successfully China erodes that order, the more it risks destroying the foundations of its own prosperity.

Musk Backs Le Pen for the French Presidency, Sparking Interference Accusations

Elon Musk declared Marine Le Pen “France’s last hope” and endorsed her 2027 presidential bid, prompting accusations of foreign interference from French politicians and legal commentators. The intervention echoes his earlier endorsements of the AfD in Germany and Reform UK, raising questions about the systematic use of his platform to back far-right parties across Europe. It lands as Foreign Affairs charts a qualitative shift in global opinion: where past anti-American waves objected to specific policies, a majority of the world has now grown pessimistic about the state of US democracy itself — a structural erosion of credibility harder to reverse than ordinary disapproval.

UK Gets a New Prime Minister on Monday: Andy Burnham Succeeds Keir Starmer

Keir Starmer is expected to formally resign as prime minister on Monday, with Andy Burnham — Makerfield MP and former Manchester mayor — invited to take the role. Starmer’s final acts included naming 26 new peers, among them former London mayor Sadiq Khan. The transition marks a significant shift in Labour’s leadership after a run of declining poll numbers.

Venezuela Earthquake: Nearly 5,000 Dead, UN Says 50,000 Missing

Zuleiry Martinez kisses her sister’s ashes before burial at Tarmas cemetery, La Guaira, July 15. Photo: Pablo Sanhueza/Reuters

The death toll from the Venezuela earthquake has climbed to nearly 5,000, with the UN estimating 50,000 people still missing and many more feared buried. The focus has shifted from search-and-rescue to rebuilding as the scale becomes clear — a catastrophe that has drawn relatively little international attention amid the Iran conflict.

Texas Floods Strike the Same Hill Country Region Again

Flash floods swept through southwestern Texas — the same Hill Country area devastated by last year’s Fourth of July floods, which killed over 130 people. The Guadalupe River rose more than 30 feet in three hours as flood sirens blared in Comfort. At least two people are dead and more than 200 have been rescued, with the storms potentially bringing more rainfall than last year’s disaster.

Two Laws on Bloodlines: Japan Locks In Male-Only Succession, Italy Lets Mafia Children Break Free

Japan’s parliament revised imperial succession rules to allow male distant relatives over 15 to be adopted back into the imperial family, addressing the shrinking pool of male heirs — while explicitly maintaining the ban on female emperors, overriding broad public support for Princess Aiko. Italy, meanwhile, enacted legislation giving children and young adults raised in mafia families the right to claim new identities and state support to exit organized crime, an attempt to break the intergenerational recruitment cycle that Italian authorities have long identified but lacked the tools to address.

Also today

Americas
Brazil calls Trump’s 25% tariff “unjust” and vows reciprocal levies — AP
Smoke from 800+ Ontario wildfires spreads hazardous air across 20 US states — Guardian · NPR · BBC
Asia-Pacific
TSMC pledges another $100bn for US chip production, raising its total to $265bn — BBC
Hong Kong police launch a third wave of bookshop raids in four months, arresting five over “seditious” books — NPR
Europe
Genoa bridge trial ends — 32 convicted, former Autostrade CEO Castellucci gets 12 years for the 2018 Morandi collapse — Guardian · BBC
Global
UK foreign-aid cuts will slash bilateral support to some African countries by up to 90% — far beyond what was publicly acknowledged — Guardian

Ukraine

Maritime Campaign Accelerates as Russia’s War Economy Strains

A Russian Su-24M bomber destroyed at Saky airbase, Crimea, July 16. Photo: Ukrainian Special Forces strike video

Ukraine struck 12 more shadow-fleet vessels on July 17 — over 159 since July 6 — and also hit the Syvash railway bridge into Crimea and destroyed a Su-24M bomber at Saky airbase as it prepared to take off. ISW assesses the Azov–Black Sea campaign is now threatening Russia’s main crude export corridor through Novorossiysk, forcing reliance on maritime routes Russia cannot adequately protect. The economic pressure is compounding: Reuters reports Russia is importing Indian gasoline after Ukraine knocked out roughly 40% of refining capacity, with no recovery expected before mid-September; Bloomberg reports oligarchs shifting billions into crypto, gold, and foreign property to escape Kremlin seizures; and the Russian stock market is approaching its February 2022 post-invasion lows.

Russia’s Mass Strikes Continue; Odesa, Sumy Hit and Five Oblasts Lose Power

A damaged balcony after the Russian missile strike on Odesa, July 17. Photo: Odesa Oblast Military Administration

Russia launched two large waves — 8 ballistic missiles, 4 Kh-22/32 cruise missiles and 146 drones overnight July 15–16, then a further 5 guided missiles and 115 drones the following evening, still ongoing on the morning of the 17th. Odesa was hit, killing 2 and wounding 10 including children; Sumy took 5 guided aerial bombs; three died in Zaporizhzhia city. Energy strikes cut power across Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts. Cumulatively, Ukraine’s main farmers’ union says attacks on port infrastructure have eliminated roughly a third of the country’s grain-export capacity.

Sloviansk Assault Tempo Triples; Kyiv Answers with 1,200 Drones on Moscow in a Week

Russian attack frequency in the Sloviansk direction has surged from 5–7 assaults a day earlier this year to 22–26 — the sharpest escalation on any single axis in months. Across the full contact line, 249 combat clashes were recorded in 24 hours, heaviest around Pokrovsk and Sloviansk, with a minor confirmed Russian advance west of the Travyanske Reservoir. Near Kostyantynivka, a Ukrainian brigade reports Russian FPV drones now deliberately targeting civilians evacuating on foot. Kyiv is answering in kind: Mayor Sobyanin reported at least 200 drones launched at Moscow in a single night — more than 1,200 over the prior week — forcing flight restrictions from Moscow to Saratov, Samara, and Nizhny Novgorod, and damaging an apartment block in Solnechnogorsk. It is Ukraine’s most intensive long-range offensive against the capital to date.

Also today

  • Polish security services arrest a teenager accused of Russia-directed sabotage aimed at inciting Polish–Ukrainian ethnic tensions — BBC
  • CIA Director Ratcliffe says Russian troops survive an average of 30 minutes on the active frontline, as Moscow asks India for emergency gasoline — Business Insider · r/worldnews: India gasoline
  • Graham’s Russia sanctions bill crosses the 60-vote threshold — enough to pass the Senate if brought to a floor vote, per Axios — Ukrainska Pravda

Investigations

Vance: Epstein Had a Mossad Connection; Israel Ran a Parscale-Led Campaign to Tank the Iran Ceasefire

On Joe Rogan’s podcast, Vice President JD Vance claimed Jeffrey Epstein had a “clear connection” to Mossad and accused Israel of running a “well-funded” social-media influence campaign — led by Trump’s 2016 digital strategist Brad Parscale — to inflame American opinion against the US–Iran ceasefire. Vance said he had “real evidence” that elements of the Israeli government “hate” the emerging deal and have tried to thwart it, citing a Time report on Parscale’s operation targeting young American conservatives. He compared Israel’s behaviour to Qatar’s and Russia’s, said foreign influence becomes a problem “when American leaders allow that influence to shape their decisions contrary to American interests,” and dismissed as “insane” the claim that Netanyahu was blackmailing Trump.

Bellingcat: Christchurch Crypto Founder Identified as Operator of Non-Consensual Nude Trading Forum

Bellingcat’s connection graphic linking payment streams, company records, and domain registrations to Jitendra Maharaj.

A Bellingcat / The Press investigation identifies Jitendra Maharaj — a Christchurch-based former pilot and co-founder of the crypto-payments startup Pay It Now — as the apparent operator of LeakedBB, a forum that profited from trading non-consensual intimate images and child sexual abuse material. The evidence runs through payment streams (Apple Pay records showing “Logica LTD”), New Zealand company registrations, a 2011 WHOIS record for mybbplugins.com registered to Maharaj, archived social profiles, and a GitHub account in his name that forked both an OnlyFans-style platform and a repo for reporting LeakedBB’s illicit content. The forum also featured in a criminal case against a Boston coach who extorted over 100 women. Maharaj did not respond to requests for comment.

The Iran War’s Diplomacy: Air Power’s Limits, a Fracturing Establishment, and Camp David’s Long Shadow

Sadat, Carter, and Begin at the Camp David Accords signing. Photo: NARA

As the strikes continue (see Leader), the analytical picture sharpens. Former defence secretary Mark Esper told the FT the US cannot achieve its goals from the air alone — more bombing will not change Tehran’s behaviour. Inside Iran, negotiations have driven factional conflict into the open, spreading even within the conservative camp; analysts close to the leadership warn that “elite cohesion” is the country’s most urgent need. War on the Rocks argues peace agreements in multi-front wars don’t end war but redistribute it — Camp David recovered the Sinai while leaving the grievances Iran later exploited, and US–Iran talks are now being separated from Lebanon’s sovereignty on open-ended timelines. Relatedly, The Atlantic makes the case that the next viable opening is a regional bargain rather than doomed bilateral final-status talks. Meanwhile Trump’s “Board of Peace” has quietly scaled its Gaza reconstruction blueprint down to a tiny pilot scheme, amid fears Netanyahu may gamble on a new offensive before Israeli elections.

ICC Prosecutor’s Accuser Breaks Silence — and Denies the Israeli-Agent Claim

Sarah, a Malaysian Muslim ICC staffer and former assistant to prosecutor Karim Khan, gave her first public interview describing repeated alleged sexual assaults escalating to non-consensual penetration across incidents at his home, office, and on work trips. A December report from the UN’s Office of Internal Oversight Services found a “factual basis” for her allegations. She categorically denied she was acting on Israel’s behalf to undermine Khan’s arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant — the UN report likewise recorded credible witnesses dismissing the spy theory. A second accuser, Patricia, has come forward with similar claims.

Also today

  • A White House teleprompter operator is under investigation for allegedly using advance knowledge of Trump’s speeches to net nearly $100,000 on the Kalshi prediction market — reportedly the first suspected case of prediction-market insider trading from inside the White House — NPR · BBC

Tech

Roc Compiler Ditches Rust for Zig — 100× Faster Incremental Builds

Richard Feldman’s team is rewriting the Roc compiler (300k+ lines) from Rust to Zig. The headline data: Zig 0.17’s incremental rebuild hits 35ms versus Rust’s 3.4s, roughly 100× faster. The switch was also driven by Zig’s granular allocator model (Rust’s ecosystem assumes one global allocator, a poor fit for compiler workloads), the ability to reuse LLVM bitcode serialization, and the finding that ~1,200 unsafe blocks in the Rust version were more tractable in Zig. The team is on Zig 0.16 (8.6s incremental, slightly slower than Rust) awaiting a bug fix before jumping to 0.17 — a decision reached after prototyping a redesign in OCaml and concluding a full rewrite was cheaper than incremental fixes.

Turso Is Building Postgres in Rust — the “LLVM of Databases”

Turso’s modern Postgres implementation compiles SQL dialects to a universal bytecode layer.

Turso (makers of libSQL) is building a modern Postgres in Rust, but the architecture is the interesting part: SQL dialects are parsed and compiled down to a universal VDBE bytecode layer rather than implemented separately. A Postgres frontend becomes a compiler targeting the common bytecode — the same engine already running their SQLite-compatible database. A working proof-of-concept (pgmicro) exists and is merged into the main repo. The “LLVM of databases” framing is ambitious — one runtime, multiple frontend compilers — and early, but the vision is coherent.

You Can’t Patch Your Way Out of a Vulnpocalypse — Fix the Class

Alex Gaynor argues that when research surfaces hundreds or thousands of bugs at once, individual patching is futile — the only scalable response is finding the shared root cause and eliminating the vulnerability class. His example: replacing ad-hoc SQL construction across a codebase with a single SQLExecute wrapper fixed thousands of injection bugs at once. The principle is that vulnerability research should reveal gaps in tooling and abstractions, not just generate a ticket queue. Mozilla, separately, has published the design for PACT — a cryptographic scheme letting sites rate-limit bots without identifying anyone, using unlinkable credentials exchanged via trusted “Anchors,” with W3C standardization planned and Cloudflare and Chrome collaborating.

Microsoft Comic Chat — the 1996 IRC Comic Generator — Goes Open Source

Comic Chat converting an IRC conversation into an illustrated comic panel.

Microsoft has open-sourced Comic Chat (1996), including the original C++ and MFC source. The software converted IRC text conversations in real time into panels with cartoon characters, speech bubbles, and facial expressions — and is the origin of Comic Sans, which debuted here. The release bundles AI-assisted modernization attempts for current Visual Studio. A period piece from when Microsoft still shipped genuinely experimental consumer software.

Also today

Local AI & self-hosting
Screenpipe (YC S26) turns event-driven screen/audio capture into local agent context over MCP (~5–10 GB/month), now with an alpha on-device PII model running at 9ms — GitHub · r/automation
LM Studio’s new Bionic app targets agentic coding with offline voice transcription via Voxtral, keeping data on-device — LM Studio · HN
Self-hosting a personal AIM server with the OSCAR protocol — veronicaexplains.net · Lobsters
Systems & PL
What a memory compiler actually is — from 6T bitcells to tapeout — thecloudlet.github.io · Lobsters
Continuations as a universal effect abstraction — write logic once, swap runners for sync, fallible, or async — crowdhailer.me · Lobsters
GDB frontends — pwndbg and GEF lead, the rad debugger awaited on Linux — Lobsters
Science
Earth is spinning fast enough that BIPM may vote in October for the first-ever negative leap second — a headache for NTP stacks that assume time never goes backwards — TechTimes · Lobsters
That M3.9 “experimental explosion” off Florida was a US Navy full-ship shock trial, not a quake — USGS · HN
South Korea’s molten-salt-reactor container ship wins US regulatory approval — a milestone for nuclear maritime propulsion — Korea Times

AI & Automation

Sitegeist: 300 AI-Generated Websites Expose Each Model’s Visual Tics

A developer ran 100 identical frontend briefs through GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Opus 4.8, and Grok 4.5, publishing all 300 results at sitegeist.kian.im. The premise: one impressive screenshot can’t tell you whether a model has real design range or just one strong mode — you need scale to see whether patterns repeat. The gallery, rendered as high-fidelity SVG posters, confirms each model reaches for the same visual ideas given enough prompts, making the stylistic fingerprints easy to compare side by side.

Schema Harness Claims 99% on ARC-AGI-3 — With Process Engineering, Not New Weights

A new inference harness, Schema, claims 99% on the ARC-AGI-3 public set using Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 in combination (and 95.35% with GPT-5.6 Sol) without modifying weights. It changes only the scaffolding: how observations become a working model of the puzzle, how predictions are tested against interaction history, and how plans are revised. The fallback runs Opus 4.8 and Sol “xhigh” first, reruns any game scoring below 80 with Fable 5 and Sol “max,” and keeps the higher score. The ARC Prize president tweeted “Looks cool — need to dig into it,” signalling cautious interest but no verification yet. If it holds, it effectively closes ARC-AGI-3 as a frontier benchmark. Relatedly, the new Baba Is Harbor benchmark ports Baba Is You into an agentic RL framework — Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol solved nearly every level, with Fable 5 fastest.

Also today

Agent safety & tooling
PSA — “claude-seo,” an 11.5k-star Claude Code skill, silently appends a self-promo footer to its audit output; a reminder that community skills are arbitrary code in your agent’s context — r/ClaudeAI
Community verdict on n8n vs. Claude Code — they fail differently; use AI for transforms inside nodes, keep the visual canvas for topology — r/automation
Claude’s flagship price has round-tripped ($11 → $10) since 2023 while Sonnet has held flat at $3 through six model versions — r/ClaudeAI
Model research
ExTernD — ternary quantization that approaches bfloat16 by expanding matrix rank; Qwen3.5-4B lands a +3.2% perplexity gap at ~5.7 bits/weight — arXiv · r/MachineLearning
QLoRA’s ubiquitous 2e-4 learning rate traces to Alpaca’s 52k-sample run and overfits under 10k samples — drop to 1e-4 — r/MachineLearning

Long COVID & ME/CFS

Irisin Signaling Resistance — a Molecular Framework for Why Exercise Triggers PEM

Moreau et al. (University of Montreal / OMF Collaborative Center, IJMS 2026) propose that post-exertional malaise in ME/CFS stems from elevated thrombospondin-1 (TSP-1) blocking the normal post-exercise irisin signaling pathway. Irisin, a myokine released by contracting muscle, signals through the αvβ5 integrin receptor using extracellular HSP90α as a chaperone, normally driving metabolic adaptation after exercise. In 92 ME/CFS patients versus 44 sedentary controls, baseline irisin was lower and the exertional irisin response blunted; TSP-1 levels correlated directly with fatigue and PEM severity; and cell assays showed TSP-1 inhibits irisin–αvβ5 binding in a concentration-dependent manner. The proposed chain: exertion → irisin released → TSP-1 blocks signaling → metabolic adaptation fails → PEM. No treatment yet, but TSP-1 is flagged as a potentially druggable target — directly relevant to the primary symptom.

Tracking

  • ANKTIVA COVID-4.019-Long (Chan Soon-Shiong, IL-15) — trial window closed July 2026; no results released yet
  • INTERRUPT_LC (UCSF ANKTIVA, n=20) — ongoing, primary completion October 2026
  • ADDRESS-LC (bezisterim, n=200, DoD-funded) — fully enrolled; topline data expected late Q3 2026
  • RECOVER-AUTONOMIC IVIg (Gamunex-C, POTS) — no results yet; full paper expected “in coming months”
  • Rapamycin Phase 2 (Mount Sinai + Simmaron) — both running; results expected November 2026; NIH exploratory trial application in progress
  • REVERSE-LC (baricitinib Phase 3) — recruiting, cognition data November 2026
  • TURN-Long COVID (immunoadsorption, Amsterdam UMC) — recruiting (AAb-stratified), completion December 2027
  • EXTINCT post COVID (immunoadsorption, MHH Hannover, n=60) — enrollment complete, awaiting results
  • Daratumumab ResetME (Haukeland) — recruiting, ~5.5M NOK funding gap; results ~2027
  • Larazotide AT1001 (Harvard/Moschovis, n=107) — data collection ongoing; interim suggested improvements in sleep, fatigue, GI
  • SHIELD (triple antiviral, Mount Sinai) — enrolling 2026
  • Sipavibart RCT (Klimas/NSU, n=100) — ongoing, primary completion December 2026
  • Brodin/Karolinska WGS and Locci/Penn germinal-center B cells — PolyBio May 2026 presentations; still no preprints
  • Mitodicure MDC002 — pre-clinical; awaiting GLP toxicology funding
cd ~/repos/josse-posten && claude --resume 3e75dd07-25d3-4e50-af5d-c47d619aa0b7