Josse-posten

Sunday, 2026-07-12  🚢🔥🤖

The US–Iran war spills across the Gulf and Ukraine’s strike campaign chokes two of Russia’s seas — while the week’s quieter argument is over how much code a developer should still write by hand.

US–Iran War Expands: Hormuz Declared Closed, Iran Strikes Gulf Arab States

A vessel sails off the coast of Ajman, UAE, on July 10 as tensions mount over the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: AFP

US forces launched a third round of airstrikes against Iran early Sunday, targeting sites near the Strait of Hormuz after an Iranian attack on a Cyprus-flagged container ship. Iran formally declared the Strait closed and responded with missile strikes on US military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar — a dramatic expansion of hostilities beyond the bilateral exchange. Washington’s Saturday deadline, set after Iran’s earlier private admission of error, has passed with full-scale escalation on both sides.

Behind the escalation runs a quieter signal: top Iranian officials have privately told Supreme Leader Khamenei that the US naval blockade is economically devastating the country, even as Tehran fights on. Regional mediators are pushing urgent talks in Qatar and Oman, while Trump has threatened to reimpose the full blockade and warned that US missiles would target Iran directly if Tehran moves against the president.

Al Jazeera: Hormuz live · The Guardian · BBC · NPR · Al Jazeera: Gulf strikes · BI: officials warn Khamenei · Al Jazeera: mediators · Reuters: Trump warning · r/worldnews

Azov Sea Effectively Closed: 76 Ships Struck in Six Days, Kerch Strait Suspended

Ukraine’s maritime campaign has shut down a second Russian sea. Overnight strikes on July 10–11 hit 28 more vessels, bringing the six-day total to 76 ships since July 6; the campaign kept escalating with ten more tankers and four ferries struck on the night of July 11–12. Russia has halted Don–Azov Canal traffic, and border guards stopped accepting Kerch Strait passage requests as of July 10. AIS data shows a ~55% drop in vessels with active transponders in the Azov Sea (267 on June 30 vs. 120 on July 11), with remaining ships clustering near ports rather than transiting. Zelensky, meanwhile, disclosed he has received signals from within Putin’s inner circle expressing support for ending the war — the first public indication of such elite dissent. (Fuel-economy fallout and the frontline in Ukraine.)

A Russian tanker burns off the Sea of Azov coast after a Ukrainian drone strike, prompting Russia to close the Kerch Strait. Photo: ExileNova / Euromaidanpress

Ukrainska Pravda: 10 tankers, 4 ferries · Defence Express: 21-tanker operation · Reuters: Don–Azov halt · Euromaidanpress: Kerch closure · NV Ukraine: Putin circle signals · r/ukraine: 76-ship tally

Senator Lindsey Graham Dead at 71 from Sudden Illness

Lindsey Graham, Republican senator from South Carolina and one of Donald Trump’s most prominent congressional allies, died from a sudden illness in the early hours of Sunday, his office announced. Graham had served in the Senate since 2003 — initially a sharp critic of Trump before becoming a loyal backer. He had just turned 71.

The Guardian · Al Jazeera

Indicator Value Change
S&P 500 7,575.39 +0.42%
Dow 30 52,637.01 +0.29%
Nasdaq 26,281.61 +0.29%
Russell 2000 2,977.81 -0.49%
VIX 15.03 -5.11%
Gold 4,113.70 -0.65%
BTC $63,847.99 -0.41%
EUR/USD 1.1418 +0.02%
USD/NOK 9.7826 0.00%
  • Markets barely flinched at the war’s expansion: VIX −5.1% and the major indices all higher even as Iran declares Hormuz closed and strikes US bases across the Gulf (see World).
  • Gold −0.65% — no safe-haven bid despite the escalation, an odd disconnect worth watching.

World

Trump’s Volatile NATO Performance in Ankara Leaves Allies Apprehensive

US allies emerged from the NATO summit in Ankara shaken by what the Guardian describes as Trump’s “capricious” behaviour — including a sudden, unexplained policy reversal analysts believe may be linked to his personal affinity for Turkish President Erdoğan. The episode has deepened questions about the reliability of US commitments to the alliance.

The Guardian

Musk Family Foundation Took Tommy Robinson to Russia, Errol Musk Confirms

Elon Musk’s father Errol Musk has confirmed that the Musk family foundation facilitated British far-right activist Tommy Robinson’s trip to Russia, where Robinson met Russian business figures and promoted anti-migration rhetoric. Errol Musk described Robinson as “a fine young man.” The disclosure deepens scrutiny of the Musk family’s connections to Russia and Russia-aligned influence operations in Western politics.

The Guardian

DOJ Subpoenas New York Times Journalists Over Air Force One Reporting

The Trump Justice Department has subpoenaed several New York Times reporters to testify before a grand jury over their coverage of security concerns with the Qatar-gifted Air Force One replacement, with federal agents reportedly appearing at journalists’ homes. The move is the latest press-freedom flashpoint under the Trump administration, raising serious questions about source protection and the criminalisation of national security reporting.

BBC · The Guardian · NPR

US Congressman Detained by Israeli Settlers in West Bank; CNN Crew Attacked

Democrat Ro Khanna says armed Israeli settlers — carrying US-made weapons — held him for 90 minutes during a West Bank visit, with IDF troops on the scene but refusing to intervene. Separately, and on the same day, Israeli settlers attacked a CNN journalist crew on the anniversary of a previous deadly settler assault on the press. Both incidents underscore the increasingly lawless environment in the occupied territories for visitors and journalists alike.

BBC · The Guardian · Reuters · CNN: crew attacked · r/worldnews

Venezuela Earthquake Death Toll Reaches 4,333; Political Crisis Deepens

Venezuela’s twin-earthquake death toll has climbed to 4,333, with over 16,740 injured and thousands still missing. The Guardian reports deepening public fury at the Trump-backed Rodríguez government’s chaotic response, with Chavista structures ill-prepared for the scale of recovery needed. In a surreal diplomatic subplot, the New York Times reports that President Delcy Rodríguez has been consulting Marco Rubio on what to post on social media — underscoring the strange alignment between Caracas and Washington amid the crisis.

Guardian: scale · Guardian: fallout · Al Jazeera · Reuters via r/worldnews

Former Qatar Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani Dies at 74

Qatar’s former Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, architect of modern Qatar, who died aged 74. Photo: Reuters

Sheikh Hamad, who seized power in 1995 and ruled Qatar until 2013, has died aged 74. He is credited with transforming Qatar from an obscure Gulf emirate into a major geopolitical player — founding Al Jazeera, leveraging LNG wealth, hosting US military bases, and bankrolling infrastructure from Gaza to the global sports calendar. His son Tamim has ruled since his abdication.

Al Jazeera: death · Al Jazeera: profile

Srebrenica: 31 Years On, Ten More Victims Buried

Bosnian Muslims bury the remains of genocide victims at the Potočari memorial cemetery near Srebrenica, 31 years after the massacre. Photo: AFP

Thousands gathered in Srebrenica to mark the 31st anniversary of the genocide in which over 8,000 Bosnian Muslim men and boys were systematically killed by Bosnian Serb forces. Ten newly identified victims were buried during the commemorations — the painstaking forensic identification process continues three decades on.

Al Jazeera

Marine Le Pen Launches French Presidential Bid Despite Upheld Conviction

Marine Le Pen has announced a presidential campaign despite her criminal conviction — upheld by French courts — for misuse of EU parliamentary funds. Reporting from her strongholds shows support undimmed, with backers framing the legal proceedings as political persecution. Her candidacy now tests whether France’s courts or her voters will have the final word.

The Guardian

Also today

Americas
US pays $3 million to Havana Syndrome victims a decade after the first cases — cause still officially disputed, some assessments pointing to directed microwave energy — BBC
Thousands of Albanians march against a Trump-linked resort — as Reuters reports the businessman who sold land for a Kushner resort is suspected of forging the deeds — CTV · Reuters: land fraud
Historic rainfall floods Missouri and Kentucky; ~200 children rescued from summer camps — NPR
US judge dismisses a January 6 case against Proud Boys members after a Trump order — Al Jazeera
Middle East
EU accused of “dragging its feet” as ministers again stall a ban on trade with illegal Israeli settlements — The Guardian
Mohammed al-Wahidi, the aid worker who organised Gaza World Cup screenings, killed in an Israeli strike — NPR
Europe
Spain wildfire kills at least 12, four believed British; 23 still missing — BBC · BBC: survivors
A 28-year-old arrested over the murder of former UK MP Ann Widdecombe, found dead at her Devon home — The Guardian · Al Jazeera
Poland’s Tusk pledges a memorial to Polish civilians killed by Ukrainian nationalist militias in WWII — BBC
Asia & Africa
Typhoon Bavi makes landfall in Zhejiang — China’s second typhoon in a week — nearly 2 million evacuated — BBC · ABC
Judge Tabassum Khan faces death threats after convicting 14 men over a Muslim man’s mob lynching in India — BBC
Pakistan accelerates mass deportation of undocumented Afghan migrants — Al Jazeera
Nigeria’s army kills 300+ bandits in Zamfara; 39 abducted schoolchildren freed in Oyo after two months — Guardian: Zamfara · BBC: Oyo
Science
JAXA successfully lands an experimental reusable rocket, a milestone for Japan’s launch ambitions — NHK

Ukraine

Russian Fuel Prices Spike as Refinery Campaign Compounds Maritime Losses

A fire and black smoke column above the Syzran oil refinery in Samara Oblast after a Ukrainian drone strike, morning of July 12. Photo: Ukrainska Pravda

Rosstat data published July 11 shows consumer gasoline prices rose 6.88% in June alone — a sharp acceleration from the 0.6–1.1% monthly increases of January through May — bringing the year-on-year rise to 19.9%. At least 78 of Russia’s 83 federal subjects are experiencing shortages. ISW released battle-damage assessments confirming hits on the St. Petersburg oil terminal, the Yaroslavl and TAIF-NK refineries, Borisoglebsk airfield’s aviation-fuel tanks, and the Ilsky refinery. On the morning of July 12, Ukrainian drones struck the Syzran Rosneft refinery (8.9M t/yr, previously crippled in May) again, sparking a large fire. Footage of gas-station queues near Putin’s Gelendzhik palace is now circulating on Russian social media.

Ukrainska Pravda: Syzran ablaze · ISW: price analysis · Kyiv Independent: fuel crisis · r/ukraine: Gelendzhik queue

Ballistic Missiles All Getting Through as Patriot Stocks Run Dry

Aftermath of a Russian guided-bomb strike on Sumy city, July 11. Photo: Sumy Regional Military Administration

On the night of July 11–12, Russia launched 13 missiles and 115 drones; 102 of 128 assets were downed, but all six ballistic missiles (Iskander-M and S-400 variants) hit their targets across seven oblasts — a penetration rate reflecting Ukraine’s exhausted Patriot stockpile. Zelensky confirmed the stockpile is depleted and signed two decrees on July 10: one establishing a Long-Range (Global) Influence Command tasked with degrading Russia’s deep rear, formalising what had been an ad-hoc deep-strike campaign, and one creating Joint Rapid Response Forces. Earlier, guided bombs killed five in Sumy, including a 13-year-old girl at a bus stop. UN data shows June 2026 was the deadliest civilian month since 2022: 265 killed, 1,816 injured.

Ukrainska Pravda: overnight strikes · Kyiv Independent: air defense crisis · Kyiv Independent: Sumy attack · NV Ukraine: June toll · DW: Patriot production

Frontline: No Russian Gains; Kostyantynivka Contested Deeper Than Assessed

Russian forces attacked on all axes July 10–11 without confirmed advances. The clearest new development is at Kostyantynivka: geolocated footage confirms Russian control of terrain in the southwestern outskirts further than ISW had assessed, while Ukrainian forces counterattack throughout the city with drone surveillance constraining Russian movement in the open. In Sumy Oblast, Russia falsely claimed to have seized Bachivsk — Ukrainian forces confirmed they hold it and repelled an infiltration attempt. Kramatorsk was struck by seven airstrikes on July 10, killing four civilians including a child.

ISW: July 11 assessment · Ukrainska Pravda: Sloviansk

Tech

Grok CLI Quietly Uploads Your Entire Codebase to Google Cloud

A wire-level analysis of xAI’s Grok Build CLI finds it uploads whole repository snapshots to Google Cloud Storage — independent of what the agent actually reads. A 12 GB test repo produced 5.1 GB of uploads to gs://grok-code-session-traces/, while the model-turn channel transmitted only 192 KB: a 27,800× disparity proving full-codebase capture, including never-read files (recovered as git bundles). Unredacted secrets files are transmitted verbatim, and toggling “Improve the model” did not stop the uploads.

Wire-level analysis (gist) · HN

The Sorcerer, Not the Apprentice: Three Takes on Coding With AI

A genuine conversation broke out across three essays this week. Doug Turnbull argues hands-on coding is how developers keep architectural understanding — passive review of agent output degrades judgment, and agents conservatively amplify your existing mistakes rather than correcting them. htmx author Carson Gross tells the complementary story: AI found the root cause of a Hyperscript parser regression fast and wrote comprehensive tests, but proposed a narrow, over-engineered fix; Gross’s deep knowledge of the existing “follows” mechanism produced the clean solution. The counterweight comes from Sean Goedecke, who argues that in large production systems, high-level functional understanding often suffices and total comprehension can be counterproductive — increasingly the only option as AI accelerates codebase growth beyond any individual’s grasp.

softwaredoug · HN: write code · htmx.org · Lobsters: htmx · seangoedecke · Lobsters: not understanding

Agent in 100 Lines of Lisp via Homoiconicity

A minimal agent in Common Lisp exploits homoiconicity by giving the model itself as a tool: it writes Lisp expressions as strings, which the agent evaluates and returns. When handed an API key, the model wrote its own HTTP search function at runtime without being told to. The core loop is 8 lines; memory is serialized message history. The write-up connects this back to symbolic AI’s original insight that programs manipulating programs is durably useful.

thebeach.dev · Lobsters

Three mlx Bugs Were Making Qwen3.5-122B Unusable on Mac Studio — Now Fixed

A developer tracked down and patched three mlx bugs that made Qwen3.5-122B impractical as a local model. A timestamp injected into the system prompt every turn broke byte-exact KV cache reuse; interrupted generations weren’t committed to history, causing context divergence; and background checkpoint writes produced unmatchable files that evicted valid ones. With all three fixed, first-token latency dropped from 3–5 minutes to sub-second — up to 137× faster on cached 32k-token prompts.

mrzk.io · HN

Mesh LLM: Distribute Inference Across Hardware You Already Own

Distributed model inference: a mesh of laptop, GPU rig, mini PC, server, workstation, and cloud nodes connected peer-to-peer. Diagram: iroh

iroh has released Mesh LLM, a system for running LLM inference distributed across machines you own — office GPUs, under-desk rigs, cloud nodes — exposing an OpenAI-compatible API at a single endpoint. Built on iroh’s P2P networking, it routes requests across heterogeneous hardware acting as one, aimed at teams that want control over model choice, data routing, and cost without renting cloud GPUs.

iroh blog · HN

Handsum: A Fixed-Size LQIP Format That Outperforms Blurhash

Placeholder-quality comparison across Blurhash, Thumbhash, and Handsum at comparable byte budgets. Image: Nigel Tao

Nigel Tao has spec’d a new Low Quality Image Placeholder format using DCT (the same math as JPEG) with fixed-size output: 48 bytes at q=1, 147 bytes at q=4. The fixed size simplifies database schema design, quality comparisons show it outperforming Blurhash and Thumbhash at comparable byte budgets, and the DCT foundation makes it straightforward to implement with existing tooling.

nigeltao.github.io · Lobsters

Anubis Bot Protection Stops Humans, Not Scrapers

The Anubis proof-of-work challenge page users see when accessing a protected site. Screenshot: Farid Zakaria

Nix contributor Farid Zakaria runs the numbers: sophisticated scrapers solve the Anubis proof-of-work challenge once, cache the cookie, and amortize the cost to zero — while the tooling also natively impersonates Chrome’s TLS/JA3 fingerprint, bypassing Cloudflare’s passive blocking. For humans, it’s seconds of spinner on every fresh visit; at 100M solves/day that’s ~2,300 person-years wasted annually. The conclusion: Anubis primarily burdens legitimate users while the exact adversary it targets bypasses it in one request.

fzakaria.com · LWN · Lobsters

Nvidia Is Backstopping Its Own GPU Demand Through CoreWeave and Nebius

Nvidia invests equity in CoreWeave and Nebius, who use it to buy Nvidia GPUs; Nvidia has also committed $6.3B to purchase CoreWeave’s unused capacity. CoreWeave’s free cash flow was −$4.71B in Q1 2026, debt stands at $24.86B, and interest expense consumes over 25% of quarterly revenue — sustained by continuous debt issuance. The structure creates circular demand signals, raising questions about whether the GPU boom reflects genuine market pull or a company underwriting its own sales.

io-fund · HN

Schneier: AI Surveillance Creates Chilling Effects That Freeze Social Progress

Bruce Schneier argues that ubiquitous AI-powered surveillance suppresses the countercultures historically needed for social change — the shifts that produced marriage equality or drug decriminalization required people willing to take public risks. China’s 600M facial-recognition cameras and rapid DHS AI-monitoring expansion are the concrete backdrop; Jon Penney’s research on surveillance-driven self-censorship is the mechanism. His proposals: facial-recognition bans, privacy law, and antitrust against state-tech collaborations.

Schneier on Security · Lobsters

Long COVID Structurally Damages Vagal Nerves Controlling the Stomach

A new study found vagal cholinergic denervation in the gastric mucosa of Long COVID patients — innervation roughly half that of controls — the first in vivo structural evidence of autonomic nervous system damage. The disrupted cholinergic anti-inflammatory pathway may sustain a pro-inflammatory state, explaining persistent GI symptoms. The sample is small (12 patients, 8 controls) and the gastric-biopsy methodology is hard to scale, but the finding is concrete. HN commenters noted diagnosis takes an average of six years due to the extreme scarcity of autonomic neurologists.

IJID paper · HN

Also today

Dev tools
Prefer SQLite STRICT tables — the keyword (added in 3.37) enforces column types that are otherwise merely advisory — evanhahn.com · HN
Bash’s exec optimization makes segfaults invisible when a crashing command is a script’s last instruction — three workarounds restore crash visibility — rmpr.xyz · Lobsters
reaction — a generalized fail2ban that watches any log stream, matches regex, and triggers actions (AGPL, Go) — Framagit · Lobsters
Inference
MiMo-V2.5 — Xiaomi’s dual-pool KV cache design cuts memory to ~1/7 of full attention; 40% E2E speedup, 7× faster video decode — MiMo blog · Lobsters 
cd ~/repos/josse-posten && claude --resume cd8e386e-eaf9-4ba0-8265-540259888b36