Ukraine’s long-range campaign reaches St Petersburg and Kronstadt while Trump works the phones on Independence Day — and the summer heat turns political from Tehran to Erfurt.

Ukrainian drones reach St Petersburg: oil terminal and Baltic naval base hit

The St. Petersburg Oil Terminal burning after a Ukrainian drone attack, seen from a distance. Photo: Supernova+/Telegram

In a large-scale overnight strike on July 3–4, Ukrainian drones hit the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal — one of the Baltic’s largest at 12.5M tons/year — the nearby port of Vysotsk, and the Kronstadt Naval Base, the Baltic Fleet’s main repair hub, with fires confirmed at multiple sites. Zelensky called the terminal “key infrastructure that generates revenue for Russia’s war.” The campaign has now reached Russia’s second city and its energy export rear; Finland responded by restricting air and maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland — a notable de facto acknowledgment. Ukraine’s General Staff now puts Russian refining capacity at 42% of design. (More in Ukraine.)

BBC · Guardian · Kyiv Post · Euromaidan: 42% refining · Ukrainska Pravda: Finland restricts traffic · r/worldnews

Trump calls both Putin and Zelensky on July 4, repositions as peacemaker

Trump spoke by phone with both leaders on Independence Day, offering to broker a settlement. The Kremlin said Trump “offered to help Putin find a deal” — with Putin reportedly boasting of the fabricated Kostiantynivka capture; Zelensky called for “American resolve,” saying there is a “real prospect to put an end to this war.” No framework emerged, and the dual calls come as Ukraine keeps striking Russian territory. BBC’s Moscow correspondent noted the contrast with Russian media’s expectations: “Zelensky seems to have some cards, and Trump seems unable to put pressure on him to make a deal that would suit Moscow.” The framing positions Trump as indispensable mediator ahead of the Ankara NATO summit.

Reuters: Putin call · Reuters: Zelensky call · Guardian: repositions as peacemaker · Ukrainska Pravda

Khamenei funeral, day two: millions mourn in the heat as a classified report warned of up to 3,000 deaths

Vast crowds turned out for the second day of Ayatollah Khamenei’s six-day funeral at Tehran’s Grand Mosalla, with authorities expecting 20–30 million total mourners across Iran and Iraq. Germany’s Die Welt, citing a classified document and municipal sources, reported that Iranian officials drew up mass-casualty contingency plans projecting 1,500–3,000 deaths from heat and crowd crush. Airspace over Tehran and Mashhad has been restricted. Western analysts describe the ceremonies as an “intensely political moment” in Iran’s unsettled post-war succession.

Iran International: classified warning · Guardian · Al Jazeera live blog

The US at 250: a darkly political Fourth, a Patriot Front march, 11 pardons

America’s semiquincentennial carried sharp political undertones. Trump’s storm-delayed July 4 address departed from the traditional unifying speech to rail against “communists,” praise his Iran war, and vow to restrict mail-in ballots. Separately, hundreds of masked Patriot Front members marched through Washington carrying Confederate flags, and Trump declined to forcefully condemn the white-nationalist group. He also issued 11 pardons on the eve of the celebrations, including to nine men convicted under the Clean Air Act for disabling truck emissions controls.

NPR: Mount Rushmore speech · Guardian: Patriot Front · Guardian: pardons · Al Jazeera: gallery

Indicator	Value	Change
S&P 500	7,483	0.0%
Dow 30	52,900	+1.14%
Nasdaq	25,833	−0.80%
Russell 2000	2,996	−0.55%
VIX	15.81	−2.11%
Gold	4,187	+1.49%
BTC	$62,709	+0.32%
EUR/USD	1.1437	0.0%
USD/NOK	9.841	0.0%

Gold +1.49% — safe-haven demand as Ukraine’s drone campaign reaches St Petersburg’s oil export infrastructure and Iran signals Hormuz preferential access.
VIX −2.11% despite the escalation — Trump’s dual ceasefire calls may have taken some immediate tail risk off the table.

World

China frees underground church founder after Trump personally appeals to Xi

Ezra Jin, founder of Zion Church — one of China’s largest unofficial Protestant congregations — has been released from prison and flown to the United States to reunite with his family, who described themselves as “overwhelmed with joy.” The release followed a direct appeal from Trump to Xi Jinping. Jin’s church operated openly in Beijing until authorities shut it down and jailed him in 2018; his freedom is a targeted diplomatic concession in response to US pressure.

Guardian · BBC

Netanyahu heads to the White House as Iran turns Hormuz into an instrument

Trump hinted Netanyahu may visit Washington as early as next week — his seventh visit since Trump’s second term began — telling reporters the Israeli PM “knows who the boss is,” a pointed signal of US primacy over Israel’s post-war options. Erdogan warned that Israel must not be allowed to “dynamite” the fragile US–Iran memorandum. Meanwhile an Iranian envoy confirmed that “friendly” nations will receive preferential Strait of Hormuz transit — codifying the strait as an active geopolitical lever, which Russia’s Medvedev called Iran’s equivalent of a nuclear weapon.

Al Jazeera: Netanyahu visit · Al Jazeera: Erdogan · Iran International: Hormuz · Al Jazeera: Medvedev

Pope Leo presses Europe on migration at Lampedusa as the heat toll mounts

Pope Leo travelled to Lampedusa — Europe’s most prominent symbol of Mediterranean migration and death — to pay tribute at the migrants’ cemetery and call on European governments to do more, a direct escalation of moral pressure following his earlier praise for America’s immigrant tradition. The visit lands against a grim backdrop: more than 200,000 people have died from heat across Europe in four years, per WHO estimates, even as the continent stays bitterly divided over air conditioning, with cultural resistance, energy costs, and aging building stock all cited as barriers.

BBC: Lampedusa · Guardian: Lampedusa · Guardian: Europe’s heat toll

German riot police clash with 20,000 as AfD holds conference on a Nazi centennial date

Members of the white-nationalist Patriot Front exit a metro station in Maryland ahead of their July 4 march through Washington DC. Photo: Reuters

Riot police clashed with an estimated 20,000 demonstrators in Erfurt as the far-right Alternative für Deutschland held its biennial leadership conference — on the centennial of a Nazi party conference in nearby Weimar where Hitler introduced the Hitler salute and Hitler Youth. Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla were expected to be re-elected as co-leaders, with the AfD eyeing its first state-level government wins in upcoming regional elections. Delegates reached the venue before 5am to bypass the blockades.

The Guardian

Also today

Europe: France: tens of thousands rally for a comprehensive sexual-violence law, arguing the existing patchwork on rape, coercion, femicide, and harassment is inadequate — France24; Le Pen at a decisive moment: her appeal verdict on the EU-funds conviction will determine her 2027 presidential eligibility, with National Rally leading most polls — BBC; Farage under mounting pressure over a £5m gift, byelection losses, and a rising rival faction; allies dismiss exit talk as “wishful thinking” — Guardian; Germany ends sick-leave-by-phone — Merz reinstates a doctor’s note from day one; critics warn it floods practices and pushes the mildly ill to work — Economic Times
Africa: Sudan: aid workers describe the worst drone strikes yet on besieged El Obeid, hitting schools and markets as the RSF tightens its siege — Guardian; DR Congo: at least 20 students drown when an overcrowded boat — reportedly carrying 200+ — capsizes on the way home from exams — Al Jazeera
Asia: China promotes two new generals as Xi rebuilds PLA loyalty after the anti-corruption purge thinned the senior ranks — NPR
Climate & Science: The world’s oceans set their hottest-ever June record; UNSW scientists warn an emerging El Niño will push temperatures higher still — UNSW; Archaeologists uncover a well-preserved fourth-century Byzantine city in Egypt’s Dakhla oasis — a basilica church, watchtowers, bread ovens, and a granite sarcophagus with gold placed in the mouths of the dead — Guardian
Accountability: A County Wicklow hotel cancels a “secretive,” agenda-less conference linked to Peter Thiel’s network amid growing scrutiny of Thiel-linked organizing in Europe — Irish Times; The UK axes its flagship overseas program to keep a million girls in school across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East — just two years after launch — amid continuing aid cuts — Guardian

Ukraine

The oil campaign bites: refining down to 42%, Kronstadt hit, Finland restricts the Gulf

Beyond the St Petersburg terminal (see Leader), Ukraine’s General Staff now reports Russian refining capacity reduced to 42.47% of design — with 8 refineries struck and 60+ tanks destroyed in June alone, and satellite imagery confirming the Kstovo refinery’s primary AVT-6 unit is out. The July 3–4 strikes also hit Kronstadt Naval Base, the Baltic Fleet’s main repair hub, prompting Finland to officially restrict air and maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. Russia responded overnight July 4–5 with 125 drones and 4 missiles against Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Odesa oblasts.

Euromaidan: 42% refining · Ukrainska Pravda: Finland restricts traffic · Ukrainska Pravda: 125 drones overnight

Crimea siege accelerates: 25 substations in three days, fuel prices triple

Screenshot from HUR video showing a Ukrainian attack drone striking a Russian MiG-29 at Belbek airbase in occupied Crimea. Photo: HUR

Ukraine struck 25 electrical substations in occupied Crimea in the first three days of July, knocking out power across 10+ raions; fuel prices have tripled to 225 rubles/litre even accounting for ruble depreciation. GUR confirmed via satellite that the June 25–26 Belbek strike destroyed a MiG-29 and an airfield launch system, releasing onboard drone footage. Ukraine also publicly revealed its Harpoon coastal launcher and NSM missile system for the first time, underscoring the naval dimension of the isolation campaign.

Kyiv Independent: Belbek MiG-29 footage · Defence Express: Harpoon and NSM revealed · Reddit: fuel prices triple

The Kostiantynivka farce: Russia “captures” a city it also proposes a ceasefire in

Putin’s staged July 3 commander meeting produced a flood of claims across the front — 133 settlements and 3,000+ sq km seized since January, versus ISW’s confirmed ~622 sq km — while the MoD released at least 10 flag-raising videos in a day, several of which ISW suspects may be AI-altered. No Russian advances were confirmed on July 3–4. The sharpest contradiction came from Moscow itself: Russia simultaneously claimed to have “seized” Kostiantynivka, proposed a ceasefire there, and offered to return Ukrainian soldiers’ bodies — implicitly conceding contested control. Zelensky publicly invited Putin to meet him in the city; Ukrainian sources put roughly 100–250 Russian troops inside, still outnumbered.

ISW, July 4 · Kyiv Independent: Zelensky calls the bluff · Ukrainska Pravda: Russia proposes ceasefire · Reuters: Ukraine denies capture

FSB runs a wedge operation as Poland quietly scraps its MiG-29 pledge

Russia’s FSB chief is personally directing an active-phase influence campaign — distributing forged archival documents about the Volyn massacre — to fracture the Ukraine–Poland strategic partnership ahead of sensitive anniversary commemorations. It lands precisely as Warsaw has decided, without public explanation, to scrap rather than deliver the MiG-29 jets it had pledged to Ukraine — removing an air-defense commitment at a critical moment and handing Russia’s hybrid-warfare apparatus exactly the rift it has been cultivating. Separately, Germany called reports of Russian soldiers training in China “deeply disturbing,” and the Russian House in Chișinău is closing.

Ukrainska Pravda: FSB Volyn campaign · United24: FSB splitting Ukraine and Poland · Euromaidan: Poland scraps MiG-29s · Guardian: Russia-China training

Also today

Putin’s personal yacht has reportedly headed to the Arctic — widely read as a precautionary relocation to dodge Ukraine’s expanding long-range drone campaign now that it has struck St Petersburg — News Ukraine · r/worldnews

Tech

Better models, worse tools: newer Claude models hallucinate tool-schema fields

Armin Ronacher (Flask/Jinja2) found that Claude Opus 4.8 and Sonnet 5 frequently invent fields absent from his tool schemas — adding requireUnique, matchCase, or oldText2 to edit-tool calls that never defined them — while older models handled the same schemas cleanly. His hypothesis: newer models are trained so heavily on Claude Code’s internal edit harness that they’ve formed strong priors about tool shapes, silently “repairing” non-standard schemas into malformed calls. Grammar-constrained sampling eliminates the failures entirely. The deeper takeaway: tool schemas on Anthropic models aren’t neutral — schemas close to the training distribution work; schemas far from it drift. Essential reading for anyone building MCP servers or custom agentic tooling.

Better Models: Worse Tools — Armin Ronacher · HN

Immich v3.0.0: automation workflows, real-time HLS transcoding, OCR, Android gallery

The new Workflow editor, with drag-and-drop automation steps. Photo: Immich

The major v3 release of the self-hosted photo platform ships drag-and-drop Workflows for automating library actions (chained triggers, filters, actions); real-time HLS video transcoding with adaptive quality (no offline processing); non-destructive mobile photo editing; OCR text recognition with copy-on-select; Android system-gallery integration; and an integrity-check tool that scans for untracked files, missing references, and checksum mismatches. Breaking API changes affect third-party integrations.

Immich v3.0.0 release blog · Lobsters

thundersnap: Tailscale’s experimental btrfs-backed undo-everything for system state

Avery Pennarun (Tailscale) released an experimental tool where ts undo rolls your entire system back to the previous btrfs snapshot — repeat for further rewinds. Three independent filesystems (root/home/work) can be swapped between “frames” independently; lightweight Linux namespace containers target millisecond startup; and Tailscale-backed mesh replication syncs snapshots across machines. Explicitly a toy rather than production software, but the architecture is the point: content-addressable snapshots make experimentation always reversible.

thundersnap (GitHub) · Lobsters

“The Log Is the Agent”: event-sourced architecture for deterministic, forkable agents

A paper from Yohei Nakajima (BabyAGI) proposes inverting conventional agent architecture: treat the append-only event log as the source of truth, with the agent’s working graph as a deterministic projection of it. Behaviors react to graph changes and emit new events; no component directs another. Claimed advantages: deterministic replay from any checkpoint, cheap branching without re-execution, and full causal lineage from high-level goals down to individual model calls. Apache-2.0 implementation included.

The Log Is the Agent (arXiv) · HN

Bad Epoll (CVE-2026-46242): 99%-reliable local root on Linux and Android, no workaround

A race-condition use-after-free in Linux’s epoll subsystem (introduced in a 2023 patch, fixed April 2026) lets any unprivileged process become root. The exploit widens a six-instruction race into a reliable retry loop, achieving 99% success without crashing the kernel. Epoll is core infrastructure — it can’t be unloaded or disabled — so there’s no mitigation short of patching. Affects kernels v6.4+. Among ~130 kernelCTF vulnerabilities, fewer than 10 can root Android; this is one of them. Patch your kernel.

bad-epoll (GitHub) · Lobsters

shadcn/ui switches its default from Radix to Base UI — same team, clean rewrite

New shadcn/ui projects now default to Base UI rather than Radix. The reason: Base UI is built by the same people who created Radix, applying lessons learned — now at v1.6.0 with 6M+ weekly downloads and active component development. There’s no forced migration: Radix remains fully supported and every new component ships for both. But npx shadcn init now takes the Base UI path and the docs lead with it. Bootstrapping a new TypeScript/React project, Base UI is the default choice.

shadcn/ui changelog · HN

PS5 Linux loader: native Linux via hypervisor exploits on firmware 3.00–7.61

A new payload enables native Linux on PS5 (Phat and Slim) across firmware 3.00–7.61 using two exploit chains: umtx2 (3.00–5.50) and Y2JB (6.00–7.61). The hypervisor-level exploit was pioneered by flatz and implemented by cragson. It exposes full hardware — 8 cores/16 threads at 3.5GHz, GPU at 2.23GHz, USB/Bluetooth/Ethernet — while the PS5’s internal SSD stays reserved for the PS5 OS; Linux runs from an M.2 SSD.

ps5-linux-loader (GitHub) · Lobsters

Also today

Languages: Returning to Zig — a first-person reassessment after time away: what’s matured in the language and tooling, what still feels rough, read alongside the ongoing Zig-vs-Rust-vs-C discussion — gracefulliberty.com · Lobsters; Rye’s take on error handling: failures as first-class pipeline values via check/fix, keeping error paths integrated with happy paths instead of burying logic under try/catch scaffolding — ryelang.org · Lobsters; libbeef — a faithful pure-Rust port of Bellard’s libbf: arbitrary-precision IEEE 754 with transcendentals, O(n log n) NTT multiply, correct rounding, single cargo add, WASM/embedded-ready, MIT-licensed alternative to GMP/MPFR — GitHub · HN
Systems: Inside Wine’s Unixlib — three ways a Windows process calls native Linux code, from the modern PE-DLL-plus-native-ELF bridge to fragile /proc/self/maps parsing and Winelib’s linker gymnastics — arcanenibble · Lobsters
Health: JAMA Psychiatry reports positive efficacy and safety for psilocybin-assisted therapy in treatment-resistant major depression — a top-tier peer-reviewed data point for the psychedelic-therapy evidence base — JAMA Psychiatry · HN

cd ~/repos/josse-posten && claude --resume 4ec7c62d-7d64-4425-aee7-d339771bfdcd