Josse-posten

Day 25: Trump announces progress; Iran calls it fake news; markets exhale anyway.

The Deal That Isn’t

Trump postponed threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, claiming “major points of agreement” and signaling a deal could soon end the war. Tehran’s response: Iran’s parliament speaker called it “fake news,” the Revolutionary Guard labeled Trump a “deceitful American president,” and missile volleys toward Israel continued unabated. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Markets didn’t wait for clarity. Oil dropped 9% on the announcement. Stocks rebounded. Gold retreated. The pattern is familiar: any hint of de-escalation triggers relief trades, regardless of whether the underlying facts support optimism. Netanyahu, meanwhile, is reportedly frustrated that Mossad’s promises of an Iranian uprising have not materialized — Israel launched new strikes on Tehran even as Trump paused.

Pro-government rallies in Tehran — the uprising Mossad predicted hasn’t come.

The First Rationing

Slovenia became the first EU country to introduce fuel rationing — motorists limited to 50 litres per day until further notice. Japan announced it will release 80 million barrels from national reserves, equivalent to 45 days of domestic demand — the largest such release in Japanese history. Ireland is cutting fuel taxes. New Zealand is giving weekly cash payments to 150,000 low-income families starting April 1, believed to be the world’s first direct fuel-crisis cash transfer.

Von der Leyen called the global energy situation “critical.” In Norway, diesel passed 30 kroner per liter.

GPT Solves an Open Problem

Epoch AI confirmed that GPT5.4 Pro discovered a novel construction method for Ramsey-style hypergraphs, achieving matching bounds that researchers believed required more work. The problem contributor plans to publish the solution, potentially with AI developers as coauthors. HN discussion ranged from “I just became a believer” to skepticism about whether this represents genuine mathematical innovation or sophisticated recombination of known approaches.

Also today: Colombian military plane crash kills 66 near Puerto Leguízamo — dozens of survivors pulled from wreckage. Gulf states edging toward joining the Iran war. Danish elections tomorrow with Mette Frederiksen projected to win after standing up to Trump on Greenland. Russia’s gold reserves at lowest since March 2022.

Markets

Indicator Value Change
S&P 500 +1.1%
Oil −9.0%
Gold −2.3%
USD/NOK 10.82
BTC $70,981

Oil plunged on de-escalation hopes. Classic risk-on rotation.

World

US-Iran War: Day 25

Global Energy Crisis Response

Americas

Flames rise from Air Force Hercules that crashed during takeoff in Puerto Leguízamo, Colombia.

Europe

Ukraine War

Asia-Pacific

United States

Africa

Other

cd ~/repos/ratatosk && claude --resume 3ab7b0b4-ea84-45af-9df7-130f25737134

Ukraine

Russia’s Spring-Summer 2026 offensive is now underway, with 619 attacks over March 17-20 and heavy fighting continuing. The assault is costly — Syrskyi reports 6,090 Russian casualties in just four days, averaging 1,520 daily, a rate ISW calls unsustainable given current recruitment. The heaviest pressure is on the Pokrovsk and Huliaipole fronts, with 168 clashes in the past 24 hours. Despite the intensity, territorial changes remain marginal. Ukrainian forces hold central Kupyansk, retook a position in southern Kostyantynivka, and ISW maintains Russia is unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt this year. Some Russian units in the Kupyansk sector are reportedly down to company strength after weeks of attrition.

Dense smoke rising from burning oil tanks at Primorsk terminal after Ukrainian strike.

Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign continues to damage Russian energy infrastructure. Overnight strikes hit the Transneft-Port Primorsk oil terminal (Leningrad Oblast) — a node handling 60 million tons annually — and the Bashneft refinery 1,400km from the border. The Saratov refinery has suspended production following drone damage. Russia has halted oil exports through Baltic ports. Since March 1, Ukrainian forces have destroyed 28 Russian air defense systems, including a rare Nebo-U radar. Russia responded with a 426-drone/missile barrage; Ukraine intercepted 390 (92%), but strikes killed civilians in Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, and a drone hit a passenger train in Kharkiv Oblast.

cd ~/repos/ratatosk && claude --resume b83f6db1-b82c-4a46-8da9-2dfbf55a794c

Norway

Diesel prices hit record highs above 30 kroner per liter Monday as the Mideast crisis keeps Hormuzstredet effectively closed — analysts warn we could see 35 kroner before this is over. The wage negotiations (frontfagsoppgjøret) kicked off today under this uncertainty, with unions ready to strike if demands aren’t met. Adding to the economic turbulence, the government announced a significant shift in overtime rules: part-time workers will receive overtime pay from the first hour they exceed their contracted schedule, following EU court rulings that found the current system discriminatory.

Norwegian soldiers training for war scenarios in Northern Norway — learning to fight with minimal sleep and under drone surveillance.

The updated long-term defense plan arrives Friday, with Støre previewing a major drone initiative — procurement, operator training, and counter-drone systems across all branches. The lessons from Ukraine are reshaping Norwegian military priorities. Meanwhile, Norwegian soldiers are already training for worst-case scenarios in Northern Norway.

Weather is causing havoc: heavy snow brought traffic chaos to Tromsø this morning with a double-digit number of accidents and buses stranded on icy hills. On the west coast, storms closed Vikafjellet and blew the cargo compartment off a van on Nordhordlandsbrua.

Education news brings a bright spot: vocational programs now attract 55% of upper secondary applicants — a steady rise since 2017. Electrical and data technology programs saw the biggest jump.

cd ~/repos/ratatosk && claude --resume a8edb455-4882-4875-ad71-3c8745170f8b

Norway — Street Level

Anti-US tech sentiment runs through multiple threads today. Discussion of Hudd, a Norwegian social media alternative, asks why it hasn’t gained more traction as discontent with American tech giants grows. Meanwhile, Valkyrien Allstars is leaving Spotify over Daniel Ek’s weapons investments and poor artist compensation, trying to rally other musicians to follow.

The security mood is uneasy. Aftenposten reports that the new 22-billion-kroner government quarter — rebuilt after the 2011 bombing — has no bomb shelters for employees. The timing feels tone-deaf given current geopolitics. Separately, the Palace confirmed Crown Princess Mette-Marit’s old email account has been deleted — the one used to correspond with Jeffrey Epstein — drawing cynical reactions about evidence preservation.

Fuel prices are biting (over 30 kr/liter in some areas), with pointed comparisons to Sweden’s announcement of price cuts on both fuel and electricity.

cd ~/repos/ratatosk && claude --resume 5d4010d0-0c0c-4bf4-8406-527ca69ba807

Tech

AI & Frontier Developments

AI Tooling

Programming Languages & Type Systems

Systems & Internals

Security & Investigations

Developer Tools & CLI

DOOM gameplay running via DNS record retrieval — game files encoded across 2,000 TXT records.

Home Automation

Runtime & Platforms

Ecosystem News

Culture & Writing

cd ~/repos/ratatosk && claude --resume db3254eb-2b40-4ca4-8937-af658cec7e58

Linux & Infrastructure

NixOS & Nix

Also in NixOS: Declarative tmuxinator with Home Manager — custom module planned for upstream. Native Starship Nix support — feature request seeking upvotes. Building Android apps + F-Droid repos with Nix. SaltSprint 2026 — Nix sprint June 22nd in Halle, Germany. Nix Amsterdam Meetup — June 10th, covering 26.05 release.

Hyprland & Wayland

CLI Tools

termaid renders Mermaid diagrams as Unicode art in the terminal.

Also: piperig — declarative script runner for date ranges and parameter sets. sbb-tui — Swiss public transport timetables in terminal. Strung — modern strings replacement with XOR decoding. Bash PS1 generator — visual web tool for constructing prompts.

Self-Hosting

Also: Unmanic — sustaining open source media transcoding without subscription traps. Movie Roulette v5.3.0 — random unwatched movie picker for Plex/Jellyfin/Emby. Cloudflare Tunnel alternatives — discussion after hitting 100MB file limit.

Home Assistant

cd ~/repos/ratatosk && claude --resume 370e21a3-e149-437f-ac58-554d734acbb2
cd ~/repos/ratatosk && claude --resume 8d0fefbc-8449-4aea-b8d3-cd906e02ba78