Josse-posten

Day 24: The IEA calls it worse than the 1970s as Trump’s deadline expires and Ukrainian drones reach deeper than ever into Russia.

Worse Than the 1970s — Combined

IEA chief Fatih Birol says the combined effect of the Iran war on energy markets surpasses the 1970s oil shocks — and wasn’t initially understood by world leaders. The agency may release strategic reserves. Meanwhile, the 48-hour ultimatum has expired: Iran responded by threatening to destroy desalination plants and “irreversibly” damage infrastructure across the Gulf. Oil is up 3.5%. Hundreds of petrol stations across Australia have run dry. Treasury Secretary Bessent defended escalation with “sometimes you have to escalate to de-escalate.”

Search teams recover bodies from rubble in Iran after Israeli air strikes — power outages now reported in Tehran.

The IRGC Toll Booth

A sharp analysis from Gizmet Brief explains why Iran’s Strait of Hormuz corridor is succeeding economically: Lloyd’s designated the Persian Gulf a war-risk zone, pushing insurance premiums to $1.8–3.6 million per voyage. The IRGC charges $2 million. Zero ships have used the US-backed CENTCOM safe corridor despite military escort; 116 commodity vessels have crossed via the toll corridor in three weeks. The toll booth is cheaper than the insurance.

Ukraine’s Deep Strikes

Ukrainian drones reached Ufa — 1,300km from the front line — hitting refinery facilities in Bashkortostan. Primorsk oil port in Leningrad Oblast is also burning. Meanwhile, Russia’s Spring-Summer offensive has begun with battalion-sized mechanized assaults against the Lyman-Borivka sector. Early results mirror last week’s catastrophe: 970 killed/wounded daily, 8,000+ in the past week, no confirmed territorial gains.

Fire at the Saratov Oil Refinery following Ukrainian drone strike, March 21, 2026.

Also today: Cuba’s grid collapsed again — 10 million without power as the US fuel blockade continues. Sudan drone strikes killed 64 at a hospital during Eid. Israel expanding ground operations in Lebanon. Charles Bennett wins Turing Award for quantum cryptography.

Markets

Indicator Value Change
S&P 500 −1.7%
Oil +3.5%
Gold −3.1%
EUR/USD 1.0843
USD/NOK 10.82

Oil +3.5% on Hormuz fears. Asian markets tumbled 4%. Gold down despite risk-off mood — possible margin calls.

World

Iran War & Energy Crisis

Israel-Lebanon-Palestine

Conflicts & Humanitarian

Europe

Americas

People gather in the dark during the blackout in Havana.

Asia-Pacific

Climate & Environment

Security

Other Notable

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Ukraine

Russia’s Spring-Summer 2026 offensive has begun, with battalion-sized mechanized assaults launching against the Lyman-Borivka sector of the northern Fortress Belt on March 19. Early results favor Ukraine: the attacks are incurring heavy losses (970 killed/wounded daily, 8,000+ in the past week) without confirmed territorial gains. Critically, Ukrainian counterattacks in the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions are forcing Russia to redeploy elite VDV and naval infantry units from Donetsk Oblast southward — disrupting offensive planning and stretching already strained manpower. Russian milbloggers continue to dispute the MoD’s claim that Kupyansk has been seized; it remains contested. Ukrainian forces advanced in eastern Kostyantynivka along the T-0504 highway.

Deep strikes continue to degrade Russian capabilities: 26 air defense systems destroyed in March so far, oil refineries in Saratov and Bashkortostan burning, and a Baltic port fuel facility hit overnight. (Also covered in World)

Russian 91N6E radar from the S-400 Triumph air defense system destroyed by Ukrainian drones.

Russia will deploy mobilized personnel from Crimea starting April 1 — a sign of recruitment struggles. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone expertise is yielding diplomatic dividends: Zelensky confirmed Ukraine is helping five countries counter Iranian drones, with Ukrainian units scoring their first Shahed kills in the Middle East. The US contracted an additional $6.8 billion in weapons under USAI, while rejecting a Russian offer to halt intelligence sharing with Iran in exchange for ending Ukraine aid.

Ukrainian soldiers from the 93rd Brigade using a ground robot for logistics.

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Investigations & Geopolitics

The Toll Booth Is Cheaper Than the Insurance

Analysis from Gizmet Brief explains why Iran’s IRGC toll corridor through the Strait of Hormuz is succeeding economically: insurance premiums for VLCCs jumped to $1.8-3.6 million per voyage after Lloyd’s designated the Persian Gulf a war-risk zone, while the IRGC charges only $2 million. Zero ships have used the US-backed CENTCOM safe corridor despite military escort; 116 commodity vessels have crossed via the toll corridor in three weeks.

Map showing the Hormuz Toll Corridor operated by IRGC.

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Tech

AI & ML

Systems & Infrastructure

The Gold Standard of Optimization

Deep dive into RollerCoaster Tycoon reveals Chris Sawyer’s hand-crafted assembly techniques: strategic data type selection (different byte widths for different value ranges), pervasive bitshift arithmetic, and formulas designed around powers of two. Likely the last major game written primarily in assembly.

Code showing different data types used for different money values in RollerCoaster Tycoon.

Screamer 2 frame rendered by the FPGA Voodoo 1 reimplementation.

NixOS & Linux Desktop

Programming Languages & Theory

Security & Privacy

Developer Ecosystem

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AI Tools & Community

Botfarm task history showing per-task API costs for autonomous coding tasks.

Research & Discussion

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Long COVID Research

Takeaways

Single-cell analysis of immune cell populations in Long COVID with ME/CFS vs recovered controls.

Directly Relevant

Significant Developments

Schematic of T cell dynamics mechanisms across acute infection, convalescence, and Long COVID phases.

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