Josse-posten

Day 21: the war spreads to refineries and LNG terminals — but in quieter corners, clinical trials are delivering answers.

The Infrastructure War

Iran struck Israel’s Haifa refinery overnight, answering Netanyahu’s claim that Israel “acted alone” in destroying Iranian enrichment capacity. Meanwhile, Qatar confirmed what energy markets feared: Iranian retaliation against Ras Laffan has knocked out 17% of the world’s largest LNG exporter’s capacity — for three to five years. The IEA is now advising emergency measures: work from home, reduce highway speeds. Six allied nations issued a joint statement on Hormuz, though France made clear it won’t participate in combat operations to unblock it. China, sitting on vast strategic reserves and renewable capacity, watches from a position of strength.

Smoke rises from the Bapco refinery on Sitra Island, Bahrain, after Iranian strikes spread the energy war deeper into the Gulf.

The First GPCR Autoantibody Win

Rovunaptabin (BC007) passed its Phase IIa trial — the first randomized controlled evidence that neutralizing GPCR autoantibodies improves Long COVID symptoms. Effect sizes were substantial: Bell score improved with p=0.0004, fatigue scores significantly better than placebo. For patients with elevated GPCR-AAbs, this validates the autoantibody mechanism and opens a treatment pathway. Separately, ImmunityBio’s Anktiva trial is now testing IL-15 to reconstitute depleted CD8+ T cells — targeting a different piece of the puzzle.

Denmark’s Greenland Contingency

Denmark flew blood bags and explosives to Greenland after the US seized Venezuela’s leader. The plan: destroy the runways before American troops could land. The revelation captures a remarkable moment — a NATO ally preparing sabotage operations against the United States.

Also today: Hungary’s Orbán blocks €90bn EU loan to Ukraine, called “gross disloyalty” by Germany’s Merz — though von der Leyen insists funds will still reach Kyiv. Belarus releases 250 political prisoners in deal with US; Washington lifts sanctions benefiting Russia’s defense base. Al-Aqsa mosque closed at Eid for the first time since 1967.

Markets

Value Δ
Oil −3.5%
Gold −4.1%
S&P 500 −0.2%
EUR/USD 1.0843
USD/NOK 10.82
BTC $71,200 +1.4%

Profit-taking after weeks of war-driven gains; IEA measures may be tempering demand fears

World News

Iran War & Energy Crisis

Europe

Americas

Donald Trump embracing the American flag at CPAC.

Middle East & Africa

Asia-Pacific

Science

Other Notable

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Ukraine

Ukraine continues to impose mounting pressure on Russian forces across tactical, operational, and strategic levels. The Ukrainian drone campaign has shifted to prioritize Russian artillery, drone operators, and logistics in the near rear — degrading both offensive and defensive capabilities and enabling local Ukrainian advances, notably in the Oleksandrivka direction where Ukrainian forces have reportedly liberated over 285 square kilometers in one month. Mid-range strikes (50-250km depth) have quadrupled since November 2025, with Ukrainian forces destroying 80 Russian air defense systems over Winter 2025-2026 alone. A Ukrainian drone unit destroyed an entire battery of six Grad MLRS in the Pokrovsk sector.

Camouflaged Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS destroyed by Ukrainian Lasar’s Group drones in the Pokrovsk sector.

These combined effects appear to be disrupting Russian preparations for their anticipated Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, with Russian forces now facing competing dilemmas — insufficient strength to simultaneously advance on Orikhiv, Dobropillya, Kupyansk, and Zaporizhzhia City while maintaining a buffer zone in northern Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. Russia recorded one of its deadliest days of the year with an estimated 1,610-1,700 casualties on March 19.

Overnight drone attacks saw Ukraine intercept 133 of 156 Russian drones, though strikes damaged educational, residential, and energy infrastructure in multiple oblasts, including a hit on the SBU building in Lviv. Russian drones also damaged two grain vessels in Odesa.

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Investigations & Geopolitics

The Failure of Iranian Deterrence

Nicole Grajewski and Ankit Panda analyze in Foreign Affairs how Iran’s deterrence strategy collapsed — and what it means for global security. Separately, Joe Kent, the recently resigned head of US counterterrorism, told Tucker Carlson that officials were “not allowed” to express concerns about the Iran war to Trump, claiming “there wasn’t a robust debate” and that the president relied on a small circle including Israeli officials and US media figures.

Two infant silvery gibbons advertised on Facebook — an endangered species sold through coded pricing.

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Tech

AI & Developer Tooling

Scatter plot of ~700 experiments run by Claude Code with GPU cluster access — green dots mark improvements over baseline.

Security

Azure Sign-In Log Bypass

Repeating scope parameters 35,000 times or using 50,000-character user-agent strings causes database column overflow, issuing valid tokens while generating no log entries. Attackers gain complete access while invisible to primary detection mechanism. Microsoft denied bounty, provided no acknowledgment. This is the third and fourth such bypass discovered.

T-Deck device running Marauder showing a malicious access point with XSS payload.

Systems & Infrastructure

Differential probes soldered directly to circuit board traces for packet capture at Oxide Computer.

Programming Languages & Theory

“AI’s impact on mathematics is analogous to cars on cities. Cars offered speed but created congestion, sprawl, and community destruction. The solution wasn’t faster cars or demolishing old infrastructure — it was thoughtful planning and rules allowing both to coexist.” — Terence Tao

Also: ArXiv declares independence from Cornell after three decades. NanoGPT Slowrun achieves 10x data efficiency with ensemble training and aggressive regularization. FSFE dropped by payment provider Nexi after refusing to hand over supporter credentials. Kitten TTS ships three new models, smallest under 25MB.

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AI

Research

Models & Benchmarks

Claude Ecosystem

Patterns & Industry

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Long COVID Research

Takeaways

Rovunaptabin (BC007) Phase IIa results are positive — first RCT evidence for GPCR autoantibody neutralization. The reCOVer trial showed significant improvements in fatigue (FACIT effect size 2.10, p=0.038), Bell score (effect size 3.64, p=0.0004), and quality of life in patients with GPCR functional autoantibodies. For patients with elevated GPCR-AAbs, this is the most directly relevant trial result to date — it validates the autoantibody mechanism and shows that neutralizing them produces clinical benefit. Combined with the daratumumab pilot (eliminating the cells that produce them), the GPCR autoantibody pathway is now supported by two separate interventional approaches with positive signals.

Anktiva (IL-15 agonist) enters Phase 2 for Long COVID — directly targets CD8+ T cell reconstitution. ImmunityBio’s trial of N-803 is the first to specifically target NK and CD8+ T cell recovery. For severe CD8+ memory T cell depletion, this is mechanistically the most relevant trial to watch. IL-15 is the canonical cytokine for CD8+ memory T cell homeostasis. Trial runs through July 2026.

Paxlovid fails in Long COVID — viral persistence may require different approaches. Both STOP-PASC and PAX LC trials showed no benefit from 15-day nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. This doesn’t rule out viral persistence as a mechanism, but suggests that longer treatment, combination antivirals, or reservoir-specific approaches are needed.

RECOVER-AUTONOMIC ivabradine results in 8 days (March 28).

Directly relevant

Significant developments

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